Prediction of the maximum annual mean sunspot number in the coming solar maximum epoch
โ Scribed by R. P. Kane
- Publisher
- Springer
- Year
- 1987
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 207 KB
- Volume
- 108
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0038-0938
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES
Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R M for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise Ral during the ascending phase, where R M is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and Rat is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (At) m
The 12-month running mean of the geomagnetic index aa seems to have attained a minimum value of 17.5 centered at December 1986. The fresh estimate of Rz(max ) is now ~ 165 \_+ 35. Also, if Rz(min ) is taken into consideration, the Rz(max ) estimate will drop to ~ 130. Details of the methodology and
Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed
The method proposed by Hathaway et al. [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] was employed to predict the magnitude of sunspot activities in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23, based on the monthly averages of sunspot number and the smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number, respectively. Our results show that:
Precursor prediction techniques have generally performed well in predictmg the maximum amplitude of sunspot cycles, based on cycles 10-21. Single variate methods based on minimum sunspot amplitude have reliably predicted the size of the sunspot cycle 9 out of 12 times, where a reliable prediction is