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Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

โœ Scribed by Robert M. Wilson

Publisher
Springer
Year
1988
Tongue
English
Weight
420 KB
Volume
117
Category
Article
ISSN
0038-0938

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โœฆ Synopsis

Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R M for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise Ral during the ascending phase, where R M is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and Rat is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (At) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r ---0.9 and a standard error Sy x < 20. During the first four intervals, the expected RM and the observed RM were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time.

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