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On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

โœ Scribed by Robert M. Wilson

Publisher
Springer
Year
1990
Tongue
English
Weight
387 KB
Volume
127
Category
Article
ISSN
0038-0938

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โœฆ Synopsis

Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the 'average rate of growth' in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, one infers that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 + 30 or 185 + 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10-21 from the two fits.

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โœ Robert M. Wilson ๐Ÿ“‚ Article ๐Ÿ“… 1990 ๐Ÿ› Springer ๐ŸŒ English โš– 411 KB

The average rate of growth during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, defined here as the difference in smoothed sunspot number values between elapsed time (in months) t and sunspot minimum divided by t, is shown to correlate (r > 0.78) with the size of the sunspot cycle, especially for t >

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