Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23

✍ Scribed by Lasheng Zhan; Haijuan Zhao; Hongfei Liang

• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Year: 2003
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 129 KB
• Volume: 8
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 1384-1076
• DOI: 10.1016/s1384-1076(02)00230-0

✦ Synopsis

The method proposed by Hathaway et al. [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] was employed to predict the magnitude of sunspot activities in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23, based on the monthly averages of sunspot number and the smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number, respectively. Our results show that: (1) the application of smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number gives better and less fluctuating (or more stable) predictions of sunspot activity at the early stage of the cycle than predictions based on monthly averages of sunspot number, and (2) a starting date of October 1996 works better than a starting date of May 1996 for Cycle 23. Both the validity and advantage of Hathaway et al.'s [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] approach are discussed in detail.