✦ LIBER ✦

An evaluation of quarterly national institute forecasts

✍ Scribed by K. Holden; D. A. Peel

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1985
Tongue: English
Weight: 500 KB
Volume: 4
Category: Article
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980040209

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

This paper examines the quarterly forecasts by the U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research of the rate of inflation and the change in real gross domestic product and its components for horizons of one to four quarters ahead in the U.K. The forecasts are tested to see if they satisfy three implications of the rational expectations hypothesis: unbiasedness. efficiency and consistency. Explicit consideration is given to the information set available when the forecasts are made. In general, the data are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis and our results provide encouragement for the view that aggregate expectations will meet the expost requirements of rationality.

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