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An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach

✍ Scribed by Michael P. Clements; Fred Joutz; Herman O. Stekler

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2007
Tongue
English
Weight
145 KB
Volume
22
Category
Article
ISSN
0883-7252

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974–1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there is evidence of systematic bias and of forecast smoothing of the inflation forecasts. Copyright Β© 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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