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The use of judgement in forecasting


Book ID
113647833
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2005
Tongue
English
Weight
41 KB
Volume
21
Category
Article
ISSN
0169-2070

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## Abstract The use of expert judgement is an important part of demographic forecasting. However, because judgement enters into the forecasting process in an informal way, it has been very difficult to assess its role relative to the analysis of past data. The use of targets in demographic forecast

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One method for judgemental forecasting involves the use of decomposition; i.e. estimating the conditional means of an unknown quantity of interest for a ยฎnite number of conditioning events, and weighting these estimated conditional means by the estimated marginal probabilities of the corresponding c