โ Scribed by Fernando C. Ballabriga; Sonsoles Castillo
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
This paper describes the BBVAโARIES, a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) for the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In addition to providing EMUโwide growth and inflation forecasts, the model provides an assessment of the interactions between key EMU macroeconomic variables and external ones, such as world GDP or commodity prices. A comparison of the forecasts generated by the model and those of private analysts and public institutions reveals a very positive balance in favour of the model. For their part, the simulations allow us to assess the potential macroeconomic effects of macroeconomic developments in the EMU.โCopyright ยฉ 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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