✦ LIBER ✦

A bayesian forecasting model for sequential bidding

✍ Scribed by D. N. Attwell; J. Q. Smith

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1991
Tongue: English
Weight: 748 KB
Volume: 10
Category: Article
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980100603

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

In this paper we consider the problem facing a company in selecting the values of bids to submit on a sequence of contracts put out to tender. A simple-to-implement Bayesian forecasting model is presented, based on a steady Dirichlet process whose states are indexed by the possible bid decisions open to the company. The model gives an explicit algorithm for calculating the state probabilities, needing only data on the lowest bid made by the company's competitors. The flexibility of the basic model makes it a potentially powerful forecasting system for use by companies bidding for contracts.

KEY WORDS Competitive bidding Gates' formula Dirichlet model

Bayesian forecasting Probability elicitation

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