✦ LIBER ✦

Linear combination of forecasts: A general Bayesian model

✍ Scribed by Dr G. Anandalingam; Dr Lian Chen

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1989
Tongue: English
Weight: 809 KB
Volume: 8
Category: Article
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980080306

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

We provide a general Bayesian model for combining forecasts from experts (or forecasting models) who might be biased and correlated with each other. The combination procedure involves debiasing and then combining unbiased forecasts. We also provide a sequential method for learning about the forecasters' biases in the process of combining information from them.

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