𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

A forecasting comparison of classical and Bayesian methods for modelling logistic diffusion

✍ Scribed by Ronald Bewley; William E. Griffiths

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2001
Tongue
English
Weight
164 KB
Volume
20
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

A Bayesian procedure for forecasting S‐shaped growth is introduced and compared to classical methods of estimation and prediction using three variants of the logistic functional form and annual times series of the diffusion of music compact discs in twelve countries. The Bayesian procedure was found not only to improve forecast accuracy, using the medians of the predictive densities as point forecasts, but also to produce intervals with a width and asymmetry more in accord with the outcomes than intervals from the classical alternative. While the analysis in this paper focuses on logistic growth, the problem is set up so that the methods are transportable to other characterizations of the growth process. Copyright Β© 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

πŸ“œ SIMILAR VOLUMES

A comparison of selected methods for for
A comparison of selected methods for forecasting monthly alfalfa hay prices
✍ R. K. Skaggs; Donald L. Snyder πŸ“‚ Article πŸ“… 1992 πŸ› John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English βš– 664 KB

Alfalfa hay is one of the most important field crops in the United States; however, data limitations make it difficult to analyze and forecast hay prices. This research applied nine alternative pro- cedures to generate postsample forecasts of California alfalfa hay prices. The procedures tested were

A Bayesian Statistical Method for the De
A Bayesian Statistical Method for the Detection and Quantification of Rotational Diffusion Anisotropy from NMR Relaxation Data
✍ Michael Andrec; Keith G Inman; David J Weber; Ronald M Levy; Gaetano T Montelion πŸ“‚ Article πŸ“… 2000 πŸ› Elsevier Science 🌐 English βš– 200 KB

It has recently become more widely appreciated that the presence of rotational diffusional anisotropy in proteins and other macromolecules can have a significant affect on the interpretation of NMR relaxation data in terms of molecular motion. In this paper, we show how commonly used NMR relaxation

Performance comparison of some dynamical
Performance comparison of some dynamical and empirical downscaling methods for South Africa from a seasonal climate modelling perspective
✍ Willem A. Landman; Mary-Jane Kgatuke; Maluta Mbedzi; Asmerom Beraki; Anna Bartma πŸ“‚ Article πŸ“… 2009 πŸ› John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English βš– 466 KB πŸ‘ 1 views

## Abstract The ability of advanced state‐of‐the‐art methods of downscaling large‐scale climate predictions to regional and local scale as seasonal rainfall forecasting tools for South Africa is assessed. Various downscaling techniques and raw general circulation model (GCM) output are compared to