What Every Engineer Should Know about Reliability and Risk Analysis

✍ Scribed by Mohammad Modarres

• Publisher: CRC Press
• Year: 1992
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 368
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

"Examining reliability, availability, and risk analysis and reviewing in probability and statistics essential to understanding reliability methods, this outstanding volume describes day-to-day techniques used by practicing engineers -- discussing important reliability aspects of both components and complex systems. "

✦ Table of Contents

Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Preface
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Reliability, Availability, and Risk Analysis in Perspective
1.1 Definition of Reliability
1.2 Definition of Availability
1.3 Definition of Risk
Chapter 2: Basic Mathematics
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Elements of Probability
2.2.1 Sets and Boolean Algebra
2.2.2 Basic Laws of Probability
2.2.3 Bayes’ Theorem
2.3 Probability Distributions
2.3.1 Random Variable
2.3.2 Some Basic Discrete Distributions
2.3.3 Some Basic Continuous Distributions
2.4 Empirical Distribution
2.5 Joint and Marginal Distributions
2.6 Cumulative Distribution Functions
2.7 Elements of Statistics
2.8 Estimation
2.8.1 Point Estimation
2.8.2 Statistical Point Estimation
2.8.3 Estimation of Confidence Interval for Normal Distribution
2.9 Goodness-of-Fit Tests
2.9.1 Chi-Square Method
2.9.2 Kolmogorov Method
Chapter 3: Elements of Component Reliability
3.1 Concept of Reliability
3.1.1 Reliability Function
3.1.2 Failure Rate and Hazard Rate
3.2 Common Distributions in Component Reliability
3.2.1 Exponential Distribution
3.2.2 Weibull Distribution
3.2.3 Gamma Distribution
3.2.4 Normal Distribution
3.2.5 Lognormal Distribution
3.2.6 Extreme Value Distribution
3.3 Component Reliability Model Selection
3.3.1 Nonparametric Methods
3.3.2 Probability Plotting
3.3.3 Total-Time-On-Test Plots
3.3.4 Goodness-Of-Fit Tests
3.4 Life Testing
3.4.1 Type I Life Test with Replacement
3.4.2 Type I Life Test without Replacement
3.4.3 Type II Life Test with Replacement
3.4.4 Type II Life Test without Replacement
3.5 Parameter Estimation
3.5.1 Parameter Estimation When Failures Occur in Time
3.5.2 Parameter Estimation When Failures Occur on Demand
3.6 Bayesian Parameter Estimation
3.7 Methods of Generic Failure Rate Determination
Chapter 4: System Reliability Analysis
4.1 Reliabihty Block Diagram Method
4.1.1 Series System
4.1.2 Parallel Systems
4.1.3 Standby Redundant Systems
4.1.4 Shared Load Systems
4.1.5 Complex Systems
4.2 Fault Tree and Success Tree Methods
4.2.1 Fault Tree Method
4.2.2 Success Tree Method
4.3 Event Tree Method
4.3.1 Construction of Event Trees
4.3.2 Evaluation of Event Trees
4.4 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
4.4.1 FMEA Procedure
4.4.2 FMECA Procedure: Criticality Analysis
4.4.3 Role of FMEA and FMECA in System Reliability Analysis
4.5 Master Logic Diagram
Chapter 5: Reliability and Availability of Repairable Items
5.1 Repairable System Reliability
5.2 Availability of Repairable Systems
5.2.1 Pointwise Availability
5.2.2 Limiting Pointwise Availability
5.2.3 Average Availability
5.3 Use of Markovian Methods for Determining System Availability
5.4 Use of System Analysis Techniques in the Availabihty Calculations of Complex Systems
Chapter 6: Selected Topics in Reliability Analysis
6.1 Analysis of Dependent Failures
6.1.1 Single Parameter Models
6.1.2 Multiple Parameter Models
6.1.3 Data Analysis for Common Cause Failure Parameters
6.2 Uncertainty Analysis
6.2.1 Measurement of Uncertainty
6.2.2 Parameter Uncertainties
6.2.3 Model Uncertainties
6.2.4 Propagation Methods
6.2.5 Classical Statistics Methods
6.2.6 Probabihstic Methods
6.2.7 Uncertainty Importance
6.2.8 Graphic Representation of Uncertainty
6.3 Human Reliability
6.3.1 Human Reliability Analysis Process
6.3.2 HRA Models
6.3.3 Human Rehability Data
6.4 Use of Expert Opinion for Estimating Reliabihty Parameters
6.4.1 Geometric Averaging Technique
6.4.2 Bayesian Approach
6.4.3 Statistical Evidence on the Accuracy of Expert Estimates
6.5 Measures of Importance
6.5.1 Birnbaum Measure of Importance
6.5.2 Criticality Importance
6.5.3 Vesely-Fussell Importance
6.5.4 Practical Aspects of Importance Measures
6.6 Failure Analysis
6.6.1 Detecting Trends in Observed Failure Events
6.6.2 Failure Rate and Failure Probability Estimation for Data with No Trend
6.6.3 Failure Rate and Failure Probability Estiniation for Data with Trend
6.6.4 Evaluation of Statistical Data
6.6.5 Root-Cause Analysis
6.7 Reliability Growth Models
6.8 Stress-Strength Analysis
6.9 Reliability-Centered Maintenance
Chapter 7: Risk Analysis
7.1 Risk Perception and Acceptabihty
7.1.1 Risk Perception
7.1.2 Risk Acceptability
7.2 Determination of Risk Values
7.3 Formalization of Risk Assessment
7.4 Steps in Conducting a Probabilisetic Risk Assessment
7.4.1 Methodology Definition
7.4.2 Familiarization and Information Assembly
7.4.3 Identification of Initiating Events
7.4.4 Sequence or Scenario Development
7.4.5 System Analysis
7.4.6 Internal Events External to the Process
7.4.7 External Events
7.4.8 Dependent Failure Considerations
7.4.9 Failure Data Analysis
7.4.10 Quantification
7.5 A Simple Example of Risk Analysis
Appendix A: Statistical Tables
Appendix B: Generic Failure Data
Appendix C: Computer Programs for Reliability and Risk Analysis
Index