Cover......Page 1
Half Title......Page 2
Title Page......Page 6
Copyright Page......Page 7
Dedication......Page 8
Preface......Page 10
Table of Contents......Page 12
Chapter 1: Reliability, Availability, and Risk Analysis in Perspective......Page 18
1.1 Definition of Reliability......Page 19
1.2 Definition of Availability......Page 22
1.3 Definition of Risk......Page 23
Chapter 2: Basic Mathematics......Page 26
2.1 Introduction......Page 26
2.2 Elements of Probability......Page 26
2.2.1 Sets and Boolean Algebra......Page 26
2.2.2 Basic Laws of Probability......Page 31
......Page 38
2.3 Probability Distributions......Page 39
2.3.1 Random Variable......Page 40
2.3.2 Some Basic Discrete Distributions......Page 40
2.3.3 Some Basic Continuous Distributions......Page 47
2.4 Empirical Distribution......Page 54
2.5 Joint and Marginal Distributions......Page 56
2.6 Cumulative Distribution Functions......Page 60
2.7 Elements of Statistics......Page 60
2.8 Estimation......Page 67
2.8.1 Point Estimation......Page 68
2.8.2 Statistical Point Estimation......Page 70
2.8.3 Estimation of Confidence Interval for Normal Distribution......Page 72
2.9 Goodness-of-Fit Tests......Page 73
2.9.1 Chi-Square Method......Page 74
2.9.2 Kolmogorov Method......Page 76
Chapter 3: Elements of Component Reliability......Page 84
3.1 Concept of Reliability......Page 84
3.1.1 Reliability Function......Page 85
3.1.2 Failure Rate and Hazard Rate......Page 86
3.2 Common Distributions in Component Reliability......Page 92
3.2.1 Exponential Distribution......Page 92
3.2.2 Weibull Distribution......Page 93
3.2.3 Gamma Distribution......Page 94
3.2.4 Normal Distribution......Page 96
3.2.5 Lognormal Distribution......Page 96
3.2.6 Extreme Value Distribution......Page 97
3.3 Component Reliability Model Selection......Page 99
3.3.1 Nonparametric Methods......Page 99
3.3.2 Probability Plotting......Page 105
3.3.3 Total-Time-On-Test Plots......Page 114
3.3.4 Goodness-Of-Fit Tests......Page 116
3.4 Life Testing......Page 117
3.4.1 Type I Life Test with Replacement......Page 118
3.4.2 Type I Life Test without Replacement......Page 118
3.4.3 Type II Life Test with Replacement......Page 119
3.4.4 Type II Life Test without Replacement......Page 119
3.5 Parameter Estimation......Page 121
3.5.1 Parameter Estimation When Failures Occur in Time......Page 122
3.5.2 Parameter Estimation When Failures Occur on Demand......Page 127
3.6 Bayesian Parameter Estimation......Page 129
3.7 Methods of Generic Failure Rate Determination......Page 134
Chapter 4: System Reliability Analysis......Page 144
4.1 Reliabihty Block Diagram Method......Page 145
4.1.1 Series System......Page 145
4.1.2 Parallel Systems......Page 146
4.1.3 Standby Redundant Systems......Page 150
4.1.4 Shared Load Systems......Page 153
4.1.5 Complex Systems......Page 154
4.2 Fault Tree and Success Tree Methods......Page 159
4.2.1 Fault Tree Method......Page 159
4.2.2 Success Tree Method......Page 168
4.3 Event Tree Method......Page 171
4.3.1 Construction of Event Trees......Page 171
4.3.2 Evaluation of Event Trees......Page 173
4.4 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis......Page 175
4.4.1 FMEA Procedure......Page 176
4.4.2 FMECA Procedure: Criticality Analysis......Page 180
4.4.3 Role of FMEA and FMECA in System Reliability Analysis......Page 184
4.5 Master Logic Diagram......Page 186
Chapter 5: Reliability and Availability of Repairable Items......Page 208
5.1 Repairable System Reliability......Page 209
5.2 Availability of Repairable Systems......Page 217
5.2.1 Pointwise Availability......Page 217
5.2.2 Limiting Pointwise Availability......Page 221
5.2.3 Average Availability......Page 222
5.3 Use of Markovian Methods for Determining System Availability......Page 223
5.4 Use of System Analysis Techniques in the Availabihty Calculations of Complex Systems......Page 229
Chapter 6: Selected Topics in Reliability Analysis......Page 242
6.1 Analysis of Dependent Failures......Page 242
6.1.1 Single Parameter Models......Page 246
6.1.2 Multiple Parameter Models......Page 248
6.1.3 Data Analysis for Common Cause Failure Parameters......Page 250
6.2 Uncertainty Analysis......Page 253
6.2.1 Measurement of Uncertainty......Page 254
6.2.2 Parameter Uncertainties......Page 254
6.2.3 Model Uncertainties......Page 254
6.2.4 Propagation Methods......Page 255
6.2.5 Classical Statistics Methods......Page 255
6.2.6 Probabihstic Methods......Page 260
6.2.7 Uncertainty Importance......Page 262
6.2.8 Graphic Representation of Uncertainty......Page 263
6.3 Human Reliability......Page 264
6.3.1 Human Reliability Analysis Process......Page 267
6.3.2 HRA Models......Page 271
6.3.3 Human Rehability Data......Page 280
6.4 Use of Expert Opinion for Estimating Reliabihty Parameters......Page 281
6.4.1 Geometric Averaging Technique......Page 282
6.4.2 Bayesian Approach......Page 283
6.4.3 Statistical Evidence on the Accuracy of Expert Estimates......Page 284
6.5 Measures of Importance......Page 285
6.5.1 Birnbaum Measure of Importance......Page 285
6.5.2 Criticality Importance......Page 288
6.5.3 Vesely-Fussell Importance......Page 289
6.5.4 Practical Aspects of Importance Measures......Page 292
6.6 Failure Analysis......Page 292
6.6.1 Detecting Trends in Observed Failure Events......Page 293
6.6.2 Failure Rate and Failure Probability Estimation for Data with No Trend......Page 295
6.6.3 Failure Rate and Failure Probability Estiniation for Data with Trend......Page 295
6.6.4 Evaluation of Statistical Data......Page 296
6.6.5 Root-Cause Analysis......Page 297
6.7 Reliability Growth Models......Page 300
6.8 Stress-Strength Analysis......Page 303
6.9 Reliability-Centered Maintenance......Page 306
Chapter 7: Risk Analysis......Page 314
7.1 Risk Perception and Acceptabihty......Page 314
7.1.1 Risk Perception......Page 314
7.1.2 Risk Acceptability......Page 315
7.2 Determination of Risk Values......Page 316
7.3 Formalization of Risk Assessment......Page 320
7.4 Steps in Conducting a Probabilisetic Risk Assessment......Page 323
7.4.1 Methodology Definition......Page 324
7.4.2 Familiarization and Information Assembly......Page 324
7.4.3 Identification of Initiating Events......Page 326
7.4.4 Sequence or Scenario Development......Page 329
7.4.5 System Analysis......Page 330
7.4.6 Internal Events External to the Process......Page 331
7.4.7 External Events......Page 331
7.4.8 Dependent Failure Considerations......Page 332
7.4.9 Failure Data Analysis......Page 333
7.4.10 Quantification......Page 334
7.5 A Simple Example of Risk Analysis......Page 335
Appendix A: Statistical Tables......Page 348
Appendix B: Generic Failure Data......Page 353
Appendix C: Computer Programs for Reliability and Risk Analysis......Page 358
Index......Page 362