Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy

✍ Scribed by Silvio O. Funtowicz, Jerome R. Ravetz (auth.)

• Publisher: Springer Netherlands
• Year: 1990
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 238
• Series: Theory and Decision Library 15
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

60 -I 137.0~29 ERROR BARS • tONE (1" \ \ \ 4\0 \ \ E \ a. a. \ Z30 \ 137.0388 \ 0 137.0377 \ ~ \ ~20 \ \ 0 to 0 '50 Fig.1. Successive recommended values of the fine-structure constand IX-I (B. N. Taylor et 01., 1969,7) reminder that the value is not fully accepted by colleagues, since they will expect it to jump about for a while longer. Our next example is taken from a recent study in the social sciences. It shows how a set of related estimates of uncertainty can be expressed clearly and effectively by NUSAP. Suppose that we wish to forecast what the future price of a basic commodity might be, especially when at the moment its price is artificially maintained by a cartel of producers. There is no experimental evidence on such a future contingency, and yet we are not completely in the dark. There is a long history of expertise in the field; and there is a well-tried standard model by which experts' guesses can be translated into mathematical form.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages i-xi
Prologue....Pages 1-2
Introduction: Some Illustrative Examples....Pages 3-6
Science for Policy: Uncertainty and Quality....Pages 7-16
Uncertainty and Its Management....Pages 17-34
The Mathematical Language....Pages 35-48
Craft Skills with Numbers....Pages 49-68
Measurements....Pages 69-82
Maps....Pages 83-98
Mathematical Notations: Functions and Design....Pages 99-114
The NUSAP Scheme: Introduction....Pages 115-122
The NUSAP Categories: Numeral, Unit and Spread....Pages 123-131
The NUSAP Categories: Assessment and Pedigree....Pages 132-155
The NUSAP Pedigree for Statistical Information....Pages 156-171
Mapping Uncertainties of Radiological Hazards....Pages 172-191
Further Applications of the NUSAP System....Pages 192-208
Epilogue....Pages 209-210
Back Matter....Pages 211-231

✦ Subjects

Methodology of the Social Sciences; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Philosophy of the Social Sciences; Environmental Management