Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making

✍ Scribed by Helge Bormann, Lutz Breuer, Simone Giertz, Johan A. Huisman, Neil R. Viney (auth.), Philippe C. Baveye, Magdeline Laba, Jaroslav Mysiak (eds.)

• Publisher: Springer Netherlands
• Year: 2009
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 404
• Series: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages i-xix
Spatially explicit versus lumped models in catchment hydrology – experiences from two case studies....Pages 3-26
Cellular automata modeling of environmental systems....Pages 27-60
Agent-based modeling of socio-economic processes related to the environment: Example of land-use change....Pages 61-76
Interval analysis and verification of mathematical models....Pages 79-100
Stochastic arithmetic and verification of mathematical models....Pages 101-125
Model calibration/parameter estimation techniques and conceptual model error....Pages 129-154
User subjectivity in Monte Carlo modelling of pesticide exposure....Pages 155-181
Recommended practices in global sensitivity analysis....Pages 183-202
Predictive uncertainty assessment in real time flood forecasting....Pages 205-228
Communicating uncertainty to policy makers....Pages 231-251
Communicating scientific uncertainty for decision making about CO 2 storage....Pages 253-264
Approaches to handling uncertainty when setting environmental exposure standards....Pages 267-280
Sources of uncertainty in global modelling of future soil organic carbon storage....Pages 283-315
Uncertainties related to the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition....Pages 317-335
Media representational practices in the Anthropocene Era....Pages 339-350
The stern review and the uncertainties in the economics of climate change....Pages 351-382
Phytotechnologies: how plants and bacteria work together....Pages 385-397
Back Matter....Pages 399-401

✦ Subjects

Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Environmental Management; Climate Change; Soil Science & Conservation