Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries

✍ Scribed by Lev Freinkman, Evgeny Polyakov, Carolina Revenco

• Publisher: World Bank
• Year: 2004
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 84
• Series: World Bank Working Papers 38
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

"Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank?s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion.This paper provides a detailed quantitative analysis, based on standard econometric models, of the trends and the configurations of trade of the CIS countries, with an emphasis on its low-income members. It also contains an analysis of the CIS countries? trade potential and its realization in a comparative perspective, as well as examination of the nature of the existing CIS intra-bloc trade.The study reveals no evidence that the CIS countries as a group under-perform significantly in terms of either trade openness or export levels when compared to the countries of similar per capita GDP and population size. However, the low-income economies in the CIS (CIS-7) have been performing on average just marginally better than other low-income countries and, overall, they have been falling behind the countries that benefit most from globalization. Overall, progress in the trade area was slower in the CIS-7 countries than in the higher income CIS members. This is reflected in: (i) lower overall export level and slower export growth; (ii) higher trade deficit; (iii) lower share of manufacturing exports; (iv) incomplete reorientation of trade flows; and (v) lower incidence of intra-industry trade.This report found that the CIS free trade area is, on balance, a beneficial, trade-facilitating bloc. There is no evidence so far that the CIS integration is of the ?South-South? type (harmful for some of its members). However, the potential benefits of CIS trade integration remain badly underutilized. The paper suggests several directions for strengthening the legal and administrative framework for intra-CIS trade arrangements."

✦ Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS......Page 5
Abstract......Page 7
Preface......Page 9
Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 11
Poor Quality of Trade Data or Trade Deflection?......Page 13
Table 1.2: Intra-CIS Exports Minus Imports......Page 17
Withering of Manufactured Trade......Page 21
Changing Geography of Trade......Page 23
Figure 1.2: Changes in the Merchandise Composition of Exports, 1996–2000......Page 26
Export Specialization of the CIS Countries......Page 30
Predominance of Inter-Industry Trade......Page 35
Trade Openness: How Open are the CIS Countries?......Page 39
The Gravity Model: Recent Adjustments in Direction of Trade......Page 43
CIS-7: Lagging Behind in Trade Diversification and Export Performance......Page 52
Conclusion......Page 54
Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)......Page 57
Standards......Page 61
Customs Cooperation......Page 62
The CIS Bloc and the South-South Integration......Page 63
Table 3.2: Average Import Tariffs......Page 64
4. Conclusions and Recommendations......Page 67
Annexes......Page 73
Table A1: Merchandise Composition of Exports......Page 74
Table A2: Merchandise Trade Deficit with Major Partners......Page 78
References......Page 79
Table 1.1: Quality of Trade Data, 2000......Page 15
Table 1.3: Trade Indices of the CIS Members (1993–100)......Page 18
Table 1.4: Trade Flows and Balances of the CIS Economies, 1988–2000......Page 20
Table 1.5: Export Composition by Sector......Page 22
Table 1.6: Geographical Composition of Exports and Imports......Page 24
Table 1.7: Merchandise Composition of CIS and Non-CIS Exports......Page 28
Table 1.8: Export Specialization Indices at the 1-digit SITC Level, 2000......Page 31
Table 1.9: Export Specialization Index at the 2-digit SITC Level......Page 32
Table 1.10: Shares in Employment and Exports, 2000......Page 34
Table 1.11: The Grubel-Lloyd Index......Page 36
Table 2.1: Trade Openness Models......Page 41
Table 2.2: CIS Actual vs Theoretical Openness......Page 42
Table 2.3: Potential and Realized Shares of Intra-CIS and EU Exports......Page 44
Table 2.4: Realization Ratios for the Gravity Model without the Bloc Effect......Page 47
Table 2.5: Realization Ratios for the Gravity Model with the Maximum Bloc Effect......Page 48
Table 2.6: FSU Trade with the EU......Page 50
Table 2.7: Average Trade Performance of Three Groups of the Former Soviet Republics CIS-7, Central CIS, and the Baltics......Page 53
Table 3.1: Bilateral Free Trade Agreements in the CIS......Page 58
Figure 1.1: Composition of the CIS Trade Flows, 2001......Page 16
Box 1.1: The UN COMTRADE Database......Page 14
Box 3.1: Russo-Ukrainian Trade Wars......Page 59