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Tools for Decision Making: A Practical Guide for Local Government

✍ Scribed by David N. Ammons, Dale J. Roenigk


Publisher
Routledge
Year
2021
Tongue
English
Leaves
529
Edition
3
Category
Library

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✦ Synopsis


This book guides readers to the mastery of a wide array of practical analytic techniques useful to local governments. Written in an easy-to-read style with an emphasis on providing practical assistance to students, local government practitioners, and others interested in local government performance, this updated third edition features analytic methods selected for their relevance to everyday problems encountered in city and county governments.

The authors outline a variety of practical techniques including the simplest that the fields of management, public administration, policy analysis, and industrial engineering have to offer. Each analytic technique is introduced in the context of a fictitious case presented over a few pages at the beginning of that technique’s chapter. Contents include demand analysis, work distribution analysis, process flow-charting, inflation adjustments, annualizing capital costs, staffing analysis, identifying full costs of a program or service, present value analysis, life-cycle costing, lease/buy analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, benchmarking analysis, and more.

This updated third edition features a dramatic expansion of Excel-based applications, plus templates and exercises accompanying many of the chapters and available online. New chapters prepare readers to:

• use statistical tests to identify significant differences in performance averages;

• construct Pareto charts;

• develop cause-and-effect diagrams;

• prepare control charts;

• detect possible discrimination in hiring and appointment practices; and

• present analytic evidence more effectively.

This book is an essential resource for students and instructors of public administration courses on analysis, methods, evaluation, productivity improvement, and service delivery.

Online resources for this book, including Excel templates, are available at

https://toolsfordecisionmaking.sog.unc.edu

✦ Table of Contents


Cover
Endorsement
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
List of Boxes
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Worksheets
Preface
Part I Introduction
1 The Role of Analysis in Local Government
Analytic Heritage
Resistance to Analysis
Interaction With Program Officials and Employees
Presentation of Findings
The Role of Analysis
Focus of this Book
From the Electronic Toolkit
From the Electronic Toolkit
References
Part II The Basics
2 Central Tendency and Dispersion
Central Tendency
From the Electronic Toolkit
Avoid this Common Error
Dispersion
From the Electronic Toolkit
Building On the Base
Suggested for Further Information
3 Performance Measurement and Monitoring
Examples of Performance Measurement
Efficiency, Quality, Effectiveness, and Service Equity, Too
Scenario: Tracking the Performance of Work Crews in Mineola, Missouri
Seeking to Make a Good Measurement System Even Better
Key Elements of an Advanced Performance Measurement System
Back in the Director’s Office
References
4 Smoothing Data Trends by Using Moving Averages
Scenario: Zornig, Minnesota
Moving Averages
Postscript
From the Electronic Toolkit
Suggested for Further Information
5 Sampling for Analysis
Randomization
From the Electronic Toolkit
From the Electronic Toolkit
Systematic and Stratified Samples
Avoid this Common Error
Sample Size and Confidence Level
References
6 Basic Statistical Testing: Correlation and Chi-Square
Scenario: Satterfield, Alabama
Pertinent Statistics
From the Electronic Toolkit
Getting a More Complete Picture
Chief Warren’s Response
Avoid this Common Error
Chi-square
Sharing His Findings
References
7 Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario: Clay County, Virginia
Seeking Additional Advice
Sensitivity Analysis
Contingency Planning
Sensitivity Analysis With Spreadsheets
From the Electronic Toolkit
Looking for Sensitivity Analysis Opportunities
Suggested for Further Information
8 Break-Even Analysis
Scenario: Sweet Melody, Tennessee
Break-even Analysis
Back in Sweet Melody
References
9 Detecting Meaningful Differences in Average Performance
Scenario: Little Gotham, Connecticut
Evidence of Discriminatory Service?
Testing the Difference Between Two Groups
Interpreting the Result in Little Gotham
Suggested for Further Information
Part III Analyzing a Unit’s Capacity to Meet the Demand for Service
10 Demand Analysis
Scenario: Newbern, Ohio
A Case of Understaffing?
Demand Analysis
Findings
Fire Department
Customer Service Center
Human Resources Department
Business License Issuances
Utility of Demand Analysis
Advanced Demand Analysis
Reference
11 Work Distribution Analysis
Scenario: Weber, Pennsylvania
Overly Restrictive Specifications?
Work-distribution Analysis
From the Electronic Toolkit
Findings
Results
Utility of Work-Distribution Analysis
References
12 Using Performance Standards
Scenario: Armadillo, Texas
Work Standards for Mechanics
Avoid this Common Error
Implementation Plan
Results
Utility of Performance Standards
References
13 Staffing Analysis
Scenario: Crab Harbor, Maryland
Analyzing Staffing Needs
The Problem With Employee-To-Population Ratios
Avoid this Common Error
Measure Service Demand Directly
Examine the Evidence of Understaffing Directly
Examine the Deployment of Current Resources
Examine the Consequences of Presumed Understaffing and Consider Alternative Remedies
Scenario: Back in Crab Harbor
Summary Advice
References
14 Staffing Factor Calculation: Projections for Uninterruptible Services
Calculating the Staffing Factor
From the Electronic Toolkit
Scenario: White Dunes County, South Carolina
Applying the Staffing Factor to White Dunes County
Using the Information
Utility of the Staffing Factor
Suggested for Further Information
Part IV What Does It Cost?
15 Adjusting for Inflation When Comparing Revenues Or Expenditures
Scenario: Keystone, Nevada
Inflation Indexes
Scenario: Converting Keystone’s Police Patrol Expenditures to Constant Dollars
Avoid this Common Error
Suggested for Further Information
16 Basic Investment Calculations: Figuring Interest Rates and Yields
Scenario: Denia, Ohio
Investment Calculations 101
Calculating Yields Based On Simple Interest
Calculating Yields Based On Intrayear Compound Interest
Calculating the Interest Rate On an Investment
Calculating the Yield From a Series of Even, Annual Cash Investments
From the Electronic Toolkit
From the Electronic Toolkit
Back in Denia
Avoid this Common Error
Suggested for Further Information
17 The Time Value of Money: Opportunity Costs, Discounting, Compounding, Future Value, and Present Value
Scenario: South Fork, Texas
Discount Factor
Present Value Calculations
From the Electronic Toolkit
Utility of Opportunity Cost Analysis
References
18 Simple Options for Annualizing Costs of Capital Items: Usage-Rate and Straight-Line Depreciation
Scenario: Horace and Jasper, Iowa
Annualizing Capital Expenses
From the Electronic Toolkit
From the Electronic Toolkit
Making Appropriate Adjustments
Utility of Techniques for Annualizing the Cost of Capital Items
Suggested for Further Information
19 Identifying Full Costs of a Program
Scenario: Barrow, Maine
Determining Full Costs
From the Electronic Toolkit
Worksheets
Utility of Full-Cost Identification
References
20 Calculating Go-Away Costs for Privatization Decisions
Scenario: Buckaroo, Wyoming
Reanalysis in Buckaroo
Suggested for Further Information
21 Life-Cycle Costing
When to Apply the Technique of Life-Cycle Costing
Preparing a Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
Scenario: Lindsey, Virginia
From the Electronic Toolkit
Variability of Relevant Factors
Limitations of Life-Cycle Costing
Suggested for Further Information
22 Lease Or Buy?
Scenario: Allegheny County, West Virginia
Equivalent Annual Worth
Making Assumptions
Calculating the Equivalent Annual Worth
From the Electronic Toolkit
Testing the Sensitivity of the Results
References
23 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Truncated Version of Cost-Benefit Analysis
Cost-benefit and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
Scenario: Surf City, Florida
Direct Costs and Benefits of Refuse Collection Options
Postscript
Reference
Part V Process Improvement
24 Pareto Charts
Scenario: Fiddler, Tennessee
Pareto Charts
Back in Fiddler
References
25 Cause-And-Effect Diagrams
Scenario: Fiddler, Tennessee, Redux
Cause-and-effect Or Fishbone Diagrams
Back in Fiddler
What Went Right in this Instance?
References
26 Process Flow Charts
Scenario: Procedural Problems in Maybree County, North Carolina
Process Flow Chart
Back in Maybree County: A Streamlined Approach
Utility of Process Flow Charts
References
27 Control Charts
Scenario: Rockwood, Michigan
Sorting the Signals From the Noise
Constructing a Control Chart
A Word of Caution About Other Approaches to Setting the UCL and LCL
Back at the City of Rockwood
Interpreting the Control Chart Results
Interpreting Rockwood’s Charts
What Went Right in Rockwood’s Handling of this Case? What Could Have Gone Wrong?
Back in Rockwood
References
Part VI Other Analytic Opportunities and Techniques
28 Citizen Surveys and Customer Surveys
Scenario: Idlewild, Delaware
Surveys
Avoid this Common Error
Survey Everyone Or Just Service Users?
Asking the Right Questions in the Right Way
Accommodating Language Differences
Getting Expert Assistance
Scenario: Back in Idlewild
Suggested for Further Information
29 Analyzing Survey Data: Revealing Graphics and Simple Statistics
Scenario: Tillery, Colorado
More Revealing Graphics
Pertinent Statistics
From the Electronic Toolkit
From the Electronic Toolkit
Back in Tillery
Avoid this Common Error
Avoid this Common Error
References
30 Financial Condition Analysis
Scenario: Hutchison, Iowa
Options for Financial Condition Analysis
Hutchison’s Search for an Assessment Tool
The North Carolina Model
Back in Hutchison
The Value of Measuring Financial Condition
References
31 Random Chance Or Bias?: A Practical Use of Binomial Probability Distribution
Scenario: Wattlington, Kansas
Representation in Appointments and Employment?
Binomial Probabilities
From the Electronic Toolkit
Testing the Evidence of Discrimination
Interpreting the Results in Wattlington
Suggested for Further Information
32 Forecasting
Scenario: Misty Glen, Pennsylvania
Forecasting Methods
Avoid this Common Error
Expert Judgment
Deterministic Techniques
Trend Analysis
From the Electronic Toolkit
Econometric Techniques
Assessing Forecasting Methods
Scenario: Back in Misty Glen
Meeting With the Manager and Budget Officer
Epilogue
References
33 Analysis of Operations Via Benchmarking
Scenario: Eliza, California
Scatterplots and Regression Lines
Postscript
References
Part VII Presenting Analytic Evidence
34 Presenting Analytic Evidence: Tables Or Graphs?
Scenario: Dulles, Texas
The Analysts Respond
Guidelines for the Presentation of Analytic Evidence
The Analysts Present Their Proposal
Revised Plan for Presenting Analytic Evidence
References
Part VIII Wrap Up
35 The Place of Analysis in a Political Environment
Disappointment, Yes; Discouragement, No
Appendix A Distribution of Chi-Square
Appendix B Distribution of T
Appendix C Future Value Interest Factors
Appendix D Sum of Annuity Factor (SAF)
Appendix E The Normal Distribution and Table of Z-Score Probabilities
Appendix F Excel’s Data Analysis ToolPak: Installation, Use, and Example
Installing Analysis ToolPak
Analytic Techniques Available in Analysis ToolPak
Analysis ToolPak Example: Using Regression
Index


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