Surveys of the production expectations in the manufacturing industry are collected monthly or quarterly in many OECD countries. The producers are asked about expected production over the next three or four months. This paper tests the predictive performance of production expectations in the manufacturing industry of eight OECD countries. Evidence indicates that: (1) survey expectations of production have a predictive value with respect to production; (2) in most cases the forecast horizon is more significant at 3 or 4 months compared to 2 or 5 months; (3) inflow of orders, order books, stocks of finished goods, etc. contain information to predict production for most countries which are not embodied in survey production expectations.
KEY WORDS Prediction of production Length of forecast horizon
Consistent co-variance matrix Forecast model of production in manufacturing Surveys of expected production in the manufacturing industry are collected monthly or quarterly in many OECD countries. In these surveys the producers are asked about expected production over the next 3 or 4 months. In this paper these production expectations are examined for the United Kingdom