The geometry of proper scoring rules
β Scribed by A. P. Dawid
- Publisher
- Springer Japan
- Year
- 2006
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 255 KB
- Volume
- 59
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0020-3157
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
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## Abstract Proper scoring rules serve to measure subjective degrees of belief. Traditional proper scoring rules are based on the assumption of expected value maximization. There are, however, many deviations from expected value, primarily due to risk aversion. Correcting techniques have been propo
## Abstract This note gives an easily verified necessary and sufficient condition for one probability forecaster to empirically outperform another one in terms of all strictly proper scoring rules.βCopyright Β© 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
## Abstract Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasting schemes. A scoring rule is called strictly proper if its expectation is optimal if and only if the forecast probability represents the true distribution of the target. In the binary case, str