Preface
Contents
Part I: Theories of Family Dynamics
Chapter 1: Introduction and Theoretical Overview
1.1 A Theoretical Overview
1.1.1 The Proposed Explanations
1.1.2 A New Explanatory Framework
1.1.2.1 Economic Change
1.1.2.2 Ideological/Attitudinal Change
1.1.2.3 Demographic Change
1.1.2.4 The Rise of Gender Competition
1.1.2.5 The Fall in the Social Capital Value of Children and Marriage
1.1.2.6 The Second Demographic Transition
1.1.2.7 A Recapitulation and Some Thoughts About the Future
1.2 The Contributions of Future Chapters
References
Chapter 2: The Future of Family Demography: Filling in the Fourth Cell
2.1 Introduction
2.2 History of Family Demography: The Gender-Segregated World and Its Early Breakdown
2.3 The Problem of Data
2.4 The Male Life Course
2.5 Why the Delay?
2.6 Concluding Discussion
References
Chapter 3: Family Demography and Personal Life
3.1 Expanding the Boundaries
3.2 Centering Family Ties
3.3 From Unbounded Diversity to Bounded Pluralism
3.4 Structure Versus Process
3.5 Quantitative Versus Qualitative
3.6 Adult-Centered Versus Child-Centered
3.7 Cross-Sectional Versus Longitudinal
3.8 Measurement
3.9 Toward a Demography of Kinship
References
Chapter 4: Delayed Fertility as a Driver of Fertility Decline?
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Recent Trends in Early, Late, and Completed Fertility in Low Fertility Countries
4.2.1 The Mean Age at First Birth Has Increased
4.2.2 Large Cross-Country Differences with Regard to Later Fertility
4.2.3 Fertility Delay or Postponement?
4.3 Does Fertility Delay Cause Fertility Decline?
4.4 Evidence Suggests That an Increasing Number of People Are Experiencing Constraints to Childbearing in Later Reproductive L...
4.4.1 Many People in Their Late 30s and 40s Would Still Like to Start or Expand Their Family
4.4.2 Medically-Assisted Reproduction Has Increased Particularly Among Older Age Groups
4.4.3 Behavior Becomes More Conducive to Childbearing as People Near the End of Their Reproductive Window
4.5 Changes in Partnership Dynamics Have Contributed to Fertility Decline
4.6 Some Implications of Fertility Delay for Future Completed Fertility
4.6.1 Access to MAR Will Increasingly Contribute to Completed Fertility
4.6.2 Life Conditions in the 30s and Early 40s Will Become More Relevant
4.6.3 The Effect of Further Delay on Completed Fertility Will Depend on the Country
4.7 Conclusions and Outlook
References
Part II: Methodological Analyses of Transforming Families
Chapter 5: Cohort Effects on Fertility as Age-Period Interactions: A Reanalysis of American Birth Rates, 1917-2020
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Modeling Age, Period, and Age by Period Interaction Effects
5.2.1 An Exploratory Analysis
5.2.2 A Theoretically Motivated Decomposition
5.2.3 The Decomposition Procedure
5.3 Identifying Cohort Effects in Hypothetical Arrays
5.3.1 Interactions When the Level of Cohort Fertility Varies Uniformly Across Age
5.3.2 Interactions When the Timing of Cohort Fertility Varies
5.3.3 Interactions in a Cohort-by-Age Fertility Array When Period Fertility Varies
5.4 RBC Decomposition of Fertility Data for the United States, 1917-2020
5.5 Summary and Conclusions
Appendix: Finding the B matrix
Iteration 1
Iteration 2
Assigning Values for the R and C Matrices
References
Chapter 6: The Future of the Italian Family: Evidence from a Household Projection Model
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Changes of the Family System in Italy
6.3 Data and Definitions
6.4 Method
6.5 Main Results
6.5.1 Projected Population by Household Position
6.5.2 Number and Size of Households
6.5.3 People Living Alone
6.5.4 Couples with and without Children
6.5.5 Single Parents
6.5.6 Territorial Specificities
6.6 Final Remarks
References
Chapter 7: A Multistate Analysis of United States Marriage, Divorce, and Fertility, 2005-10 and 2015-20: The Retreat from Marr...
7.1 The Augmented Marital Status Life Table Model
7.2 The Input Data
7.3 Calculating Summary Measures of Marriage, Divorce, and Fertility
7.4 Results
7.5 Discussion
Appendix
References
Chapter 8: Heterogeneity in Hispanic Fertility: Confronting the Challenges of Estimation and Disaggregation
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Background
8.2.1 Sources of Heterogeneity in Hispanic Fertility
8.2.2 Challenges to Correctly Estimating Variation in Hispanic Fertility
8.3 Variation in Hispanic Fertility from 2006-2016
8.3.1 Data and Sample
8.3.2 Analytic Method
8.3.3 Fertility Rates and Population Composition from 2006-2016
8.3.4 Population Composition
8.3.5 Decomposition Results
8.4 Conclusion
Appendix 1
References
Part III: Case Studies of Family Transformation
Chapter 9: The Gender War and the Rise of Anti-family Sentiments in South Korea
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Background
9.2.1 Uneven Gender Revolution by Gender in South Korea
9.2.1.1 The Origins and Diffusion of the Gender War in South Korea
9.2.1.2 The Gangnam Murder and the Intensification of the Gender War
9.3 Analytical Approach and Data
9.4 Results
9.4.1 Gangnam MurderΒ΄s Influence on Public Discourse About Gender Issues
9.4.2 Gender Attitudes After the Gangnam Murder
9.4.3 Attitudes and Intentions Toward Marriage After the Gangnam Murder
9.5 Discussion
References
In Korean
Chapter 10: Cohort Change in Family Life Course Complexity of Adults and Children
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Conceptualizing Family Complexity
10.2.1 Previous Literature on Family Complexity
10.3 Theoretical Background
10.3.1 Family Complexity Across Birth Cohorts
10.3.2 Differences by Gender and Parenthood Status
10.3.3 Differences Between Adults and Children
10.4 Data and Methods
10.4.1 Study Sample
10.4.2 Sequence Definition
10.4.3 Measuring Family Complexity
10.4.4 Analytical Strategy
10.5 Results
10.5.1 AdultsΒ΄ Family Complexity
10.5.2 ChildrenΒ΄s Family Complexity
10.6 Discussion
Appendix
References
Chapter 11: Union Experience and Stability of Parental Unions in Sweden and Norway
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Postponed Parenthood and Shifts in Union Experience
11.3 Implications of Union Experience for Family Stability
11.4 Parallel Life Experiences Prior to Parenthood
11.5 Identifying Contributions of Changes in Young Adult Experience to Parental Separation
11.6 Union Experience, Education, and Parental Separation in Norway and Sweden
11.7 Data and Methods
11.8 Results
11.9 Conclusions and Discussion
References
Part IV: Deviance and the Family
Chapter 12: Criminal Offending Trajectories During the Transition to Adulthood and Subsequent Fertility
12.1 Offending Trajectories
12.2 Literature on Offending
12.3 Gender, Offending, and Fertility
12.4 Current Research
12.5 Data
12.5.1 Dependent Variable
12.5.2 Focal Independent Variable
12.5.3 Control Variables
12.5.4 Analytical Approach
12.6 Results
12.6.1 Multivariate Results
12.6.2 Supplementary Models
12.7 Discussion
12.7.1 Limitations
12.7.2 Conclusion
Appendix A: Mean Parity by Serious and Intense Offending, N = 8909
Appendix B: Full Models of Poisson Regression of Serious and Intense Offending, Women and Men
Appendix C: Poisson Regression of Wave V Fertility on Specific Offenses,spiepr146 Women
Appendix D: Poisson Regression of Wave V Fertility on Specific Offenses, Men
References
Chapter 13: The Influence of Intimate Partner Violence on Early and Unintended Parenthood
13.1 The Influence of Intimate Partner Violence on Early and Unintended Parenthood
13.1.1 Intimate Partner Violence and Birth Intendedness
13.1.2 Current Study
13.2 Data and Methods
13.2.1 Data
13.2.2 Dependent Variable
13.2.3 Independent Variables
13.2.4 Analytic Strategy
13.2.5 Descriptive Results
13.2.6 Regression Results
13.2.7 Supplemental Analyses
13.2.8 Discussion
13.3 Conclusions
References