Dynamic Population Models (The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, 17)

✍ Scribed by Robert Schoen

• Publisher: Springer
• Year: 2007
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 260
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Dynamic Population Models is the first book to comprehensively discuss and synthesize the emerging field of dynamic modeling, i.e. the analysis and application of population models that have changing vital rates. Incorporating the latest research, it includes thorough discussions of population growth and momentum under gradual fertility declines, the impact of changes in the timing of events on fertility measures, and the complex relationship between period and cohort measures. Recently developed models for the analysis of changing mortality are examined, and generalizations of Lotka’s fixed rate stable population model are developed and applied.

The book is well organized and clearly written so that it is accessible to those with only a minimal knowledge of calculus. It begins with a review of fixed rate population models, from the basic life table to multistate stable populations. The process of convergence to stability is described, and the regularities underlying change in the size and composition of any population are explored. Techniques for estimating rates from multistate population distributions are presented, and new multi-age, multistate dynamic models are developed. Building on the logical closure of demographic models and the close relationship between population stocks and flows, the book sets forth the latest approaches for capturing population change in a world experiencing profound demographic transformations.

✦ Table of Contents

978-1-4020-5230-9_BookFrontmatter_OnlinePDF.pdf
978-1-4020-5230-9_1_OnlinePDF.pdf
Population Models With Constant Rates
Introduction
Some Basic Concepts
The Basic Life Table
Multiple Decrement and Cause Eliminated Life Tables
Stable Population Models
Continuous Stable Models
Discrete Stable Models
Multistate Life Tables
Scalar Multistate Equations
Matrix Multistate Equations
Multistate Expectancies and Summary Measures
The Multistate Stable Population
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_2_OnlinePDF.pdf
Convergence to Stability
Introduction
Conditions for Stability
The Speed of Convergence
Some Explicit Analyses of Convergence
Convergence in 22 Leslie Models
Convergence in a 33 Leslie Model
Convergence in a Two Living State Multistate Model
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_3_OnlinePDF.pdf
Population Momentum
Introduction
Momentum As a Demographic Phenomenon
The Basic Dynamics
Momentum and Aging
Momentum Under Gradual Declines to Stationarity
Spatial Momentum
Spatial Momentum in Two Region Models Without Age
Decomposing Total Multistate Population Momentum
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_4_OnlinePDF.pdf
Demographic Change at the Margin
Introduction
Marginal Change in Fixed Rate Models
Changes in Stable Population Measures
Changes in Stable Population Characteristics
Recognizing Age-Dependent Growth
Connections Between Populations Having the Same Vital Rates
Marginal Change in Dynamic Populations
Derivatives of Aggregate Demographic Measures
Marginal Change and Stabilization
A Spectral Decomposition of Marginal Change
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_5_OnlinePDF.pdf
Longevity and Dynamic Mortality
Introduction
An Overview of Changes in Human Mortality
A Third Analytical Perspective: The Wedge-Period
Period-Cohort Considerations
The Period-Cohort Contrast in Mortality
Average Cohort Life Expectancy
A Shifting Gompertz Mortality Change Model
The Bongaarts-Feeney Approach
Relationships in a Shifting Gompertz Model
Models of Constant Mortality Decline Over Time
Three Models With Linearly Changing Mortality
Gaps and Lags Between Period and Cohort Life Expectancies
The Modal Age At Death
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_6_OnlinePDF.pdf
Timing Effects on Fertility, Marriage, and Divorce
Introduction
The Period-Cohort Contrast
The Bongaarts-Feeney Approach
Average Cohort Fertility
Comparing the Bongaarts-Feeney and ACF Approaches
Timing Effects in Selected Models
Timing Effects in the United States, 1917--97
Examining Parity-Specific Period tfrs
A Diminishing Population Whose Every Cohort More Than Replaces Itself
Timing Effects on First Marriage
Measuring Timing Effects on First Marriage
Timing Effects on First Marriage in England and Wales and the United States
Timing Effects on Divorce
Measuring Timing Effects on Divorce
Timing Effects on Divorce in the United States
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_7_OnlinePDF.pdf
Dynamic Birth-Death (Multi-Age) Models
Introduction
Models Where the Age-Specific Rates Are Implicit
Considering Models With a Constant Generation Length
Cyclical Models With a Constant Generation Length
Intergenerational Relationships in a Simple Model With Sinusoidal Births
Metastability, A Closed Form Extension of Stability
Deriving the Discrete Metastable Model
The Continuous Metastable Model
Modeling Fertility Transitions and Their Associated Momentum
Intrinsically Dynamic Models, An Alternative Extension of Stability
The Two Age Group Intrinsically Dynamic Model
The Three Age Group Intrinsically Dynamic Model
The n-Age Group Intrinsically Dynamic Model
IDM Birth Trajectories
Observed Populations as IDM Populations
Transitions and Momentum in IDM Populations
Finding Rates Consistent With a Known Birth Trajectory
Hyperstable Models
Models With Proportional Rates
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_8_OnlinePDF.pdf
Dynamic Multistate Models
Introduction
Cohort Multistate Models With Proportional Transfer Rates
Relationships in Proportional Transfer Rate (PTR) Models
PTR Models With 2 Living States
Hierarchical PTR Models
A PTR Model of Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage
Multistate Metastable Models
Multistate Intrinsically Dynamic Models
The Restricted Two Living State Uniform Growth Model
Additional Two Living State Models
The Restricted No Growth IDM With Three Living States
The Restricted Uniform Growth IDM With n Living States
Multistate Hyperstability
Deriving the Multistate Hyperstable Equations
Relationships Between the Multi-Age and Multistate Hyperstable Models
A Further Examination of the Dynamic Two Living State Model
Finding Rates Consistent With Multistate Population Distributions
Estimating Multistate Arrays Through Iterative Proportional Fitting
Estimating Multistate Rates By the Relative State Attraction (RSA) Method
Evaluating the IPF and RSA Approaches
Summary
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_9_OnlinePDF.pdf
Dynamic Models With Multiple Ages and States
Introduction
The Multi-Age and State Hyperstable (MASH) Model
Specifying the MASH Model
An Illustrative Application
The Multi-Age and State Metastable (MASM) Model
Summary and Overview
Chapter Summary
Overview and Recapitulation
Exercises
978-1-4020-5230-9_BookBackmatter_OnlinePDF.pdf
0schnappA.pdf
Matrices and Their Eigenstructure
0schnappB.pdf
Selected Answers to Exercises
0schnappC.pdf
Index of the Principal Symbols Used
0schnref.pdf
References
0schnauthindex.pdf
Author Index
0schnsubIndex.pdf
Subject Index