Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios (Palgrave Executive Essentials)

✍ Scribed by Shardul S. Phadnis, Yossi Sheffi, Chris Caplice

• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• Year: 2022
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 244
• Edition: 1st ed. 2022
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This book presents a strategic decision-making process (i.e., scenario planning) to help managers build supply chain infrastructures that can adapt to uncertain shifts in the business environment. The authors detail the process for developing and applying scenarios for strategic planning in organizations playing three different roles in supply chains. Using three cases in which the process was applied in association with the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics, this primer also explains how companies can monitor their business environments to decide when to take the necessary steps to adapt their supply chain strategies and assets. 

The lessons learned are applicable globally: in first-world free-market economies, emerging countries and poorer nations, as well as the states where the government plays a strong role in the economic activity.

This book can show companies how to assess numerous drivers shaping their supply chains and make living strategic plans accordingly, to build adaptable and agile supply chains. It explains how to approach long-term supply chain investments in the organization.

✦ Table of Contents

Preface
Acknowledgments
About This Book
Praise for Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains
Contents
About the Authors
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
Supply Chains: A Brief Primer
An Illustrative Example: Nestlé’s Palm Oil Supply Chain
Geographic and Organizational Spread of Supply Chains
Recognizing the Strategic Importance of Supply Chains
Twenty-First Century Supply Chains
Global Scope
Increasingly Digital
Increasing Focus on Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG)
A Deep-Tier Supplier Problem
Demanding Consumers
Strategic Supply Chain Planning: Preparing for Unpredictable Environments
Organization of the Book
2 Managing Supply Chains: Three Organizational Roles
Different Organizational Roles That Shape Supply Chains
Functional Role: Integrated Supply Chain Management
Vignette: Enabling Beer Delivery at Hoppy Brew
Business Model Role: Value Creation by Managing Supply Chains
Vignette: Pharmaceutical Distribution by Medford
Infrastructural Role: Creating Infrastructure for Supply Chain Excellence
Vignette: Future Freight Flows in the US
Strategic Planning in Supply Chains
Strategic Planning in the Functional Role
Strategic Planning in the Business Model Role
Strategic Planning in the Infrastructural Role
Difficulty in Strategic Planning in Supply Chains
“Wicked” Decision-Making Context
Myopic Operational Focus
Absence of Decision-Making Processes for Dealing with Systemic Uncertainty
3 Scenario Planning: A Tool for Organizational Learning and Foresight
What Is Scenario Planning?
Scenario Planning: Back to the Future
Scenario Planning: Coming of Age
Intuitive Logics School
Variations of Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning: A Method for Foresight, Not Forecasting
Learning from Scenario Use: Anecdotal Evidence
Learning from Scenario Use: Emerging Experimental Evidence
Scenario Planning in Supply Chain Management: Case of United Parcel Service (UPS)
Scenario Planning at UPS Circa 199734
Strategic Moves After Scenario Exercise
Scenario Planning at UPS in the Twenty-First Century
4 Designing Scenarios to Aid Strategic Planning in Supply Chains
Scenario Creation: A Primer
Scenario Creation: Some Terminology2
Generic Scenario Creation Process
5 Scenario Creation in Supply Chain Contexts
Functional Role: Scenarios for Hoppy Brew
Scope of Hoppy Brew’s Scenario Planning Project (Step 1)
Hoppy Brew Local Factors and Driving Forces (Steps 2, 3)
Impact and Uncertainty of Hoppy Brew’s Driving Forces (Steps 4, 5)
Hoppy Brew’s Scenario Logic and Scenarios (Steps 6, 7)
Business Model Role: Scenarios for Medford’s Pharmaceuticals Distribution
Scope of Medford’s Scenarios (Step 1)
Medford’s Local Factors and Driving Forces (Steps 2, 3)
Impact and Uncertainty of Medford’s Driving Forces (Steps 4, 5)
Medford’s Scenario Logic and Scenarios (Steps 6, 7)
Infrastructural Role: Scenarios for Future Freight Flows (FFF) in the US
Scope of FFF Scenarios (Step 1)
Local Factors of FFF (Step 2)
Driving Forces of FFF (Step 3)
Impact and Uncertainty of FFF Driving Forces (Steps 4, 5)
FFF Scenario Logic and Scenarios (Steps 6, 7)
Supplemental Material for “Out of the Box” FFF Scenarios
Scenario Booklets
Scenario Videos
Planning Guide
Facilitator’s Guide
6 Scenario Application: General Steps
Step 1: Immerse in the Scenarios (Individual Scenario)
Step 2: Identify Scenario Implications (Individual Scenario)
Step 3: Envision and Evaluate Strategic Initiatives (Individual Scenario)
Step 4: Conduct Cross-Scenario Strategy Analysis
Step 5: Identify Scenario Indicators
Step 6: Monitor Environment Using “Scenario Dashboard”
Organizational Process for Making Strategic Decisions Using the Scenario Dashboard
Scenario Dashboard Meta-Review: Not to Be Overlooked
7 Scenario Application in Supply Chain Contexts
Functional Role: Building an Adaptable Supply Chain for Hoppy Brew
Exploration of Scenarios by Hoppy Brew Executives (Steps 1, 2)
Visioning of Supply Chain Initiatives for Hoppy Brew (Step 3)
Scenario-Based Evaluation of Hoppy Brew’s Capabilities (Steps 3, 4)
Capability Evaluations for Individual Environmental Factors
Cross-Scenario Analysis
Indicators to Monitor Hoppy Brew’s Business Environment (Step 5)
Scenario Dashboard for Hoppy Brew (Step 6)
Computing Extreme Values of Environmental Factors
Assessing Value of Supply Chain Capabilities
Business Model Role: Anticipation of Environmental Changes at Medford
Scenario Exploration by Medford’s Executives (Steps 1–3)
Cross-Scenario Analysis of Scenario Implications (Step 4)
Robust Implications for Medford
Contingent Implications for Medford
Infrastructural Role: Transport Infrastructure Planning
Pre-Workshop Activities
Scope
Objective
Workshop Duration
Participants
Strategic Questions
Evaluation Elements
Evaluation Mechanism
Scenarios
Debrief
Exploration of FFF Scenarios at WSDOT (Steps 1, 2)
Pre-workshop Scenario Exploration
Scenario Exploration During the Workshop
Envisioning and Evaluating Infrastructure Investments at WSDOT (Step 3)
Cross-Scenario Analysis of WSDOT Infrastructure Investments (Step 4)
Incorporating Workshop Feedback into Traditional Planning Processes
8 Learning from Scenario Applications
Evaluation of a Scenario Planning Application
Difficulty in Evaluating Scenario Planning
Approach for Evaluating Scenario Planning Initiatives
Evaluating the Effect on Organizational Thinking
Evaluating the Effect on Strategic Decisions
Outcomes of Featured Scenario Planning Projects
Functional Role: Outcomes for Hoppy Brew
Business Model Role: Outcomes for Medford
Breaking from Operational Focus to Think About Long-Term Issues
Focus on Threats but Optimistic Outlook
Infrastructural Role: Outcomes in Future Freight Flows (FFF)
Expert Judgment Changes After Participating in a Scenario Planning Workshop
Changes in Expert Judgment Were Systematic and Could Be Traced Back to the Scenarios Used
Experts Prefer More Flexible Options After Multi-Scenario Evaluation
Ensuring Success of a Scenario Planning Initiative
Start with a Clear Definition of Purpose
Involve Supply Chain Executives in Scenario Creation from the Beginning
Refer to Authoritative Sources During the Scenario Creation Process
Involve the Scenario Project Team in Finalizing the Scenario Logic and Content
Characterize Unofficial Future as One of the Scenarios
Measure Effects of Scenario Intervention
9 Appendix
Index