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Strategic forecasting on the FOMC

✍ Scribed by Peter Tillmann


Book ID
113591168
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2011
Tongue
English
Weight
188 KB
Volume
27
Category
Article
ISSN
0176-2680

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## Abstract We develop a model to forecast the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) interest rate setting behavior in a nonstationary discrete choice model framework by Hu and Phillips (2004). We find that if the model selection criterion is strictly empirical, correcting for nonstationarity is