Simple hourly global solar radiation prediction models

✍ Scribed by M.S. Audi; M.A. Alsaad

• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Year: 1991
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 393 KB
• Volume: 1
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0960-1481
• DOI: 10.1016/0960-1481(91)90060-3

✦ Synopsis

Three simple prediction models of hourly global radiation, namely, a normal distribution model (ND), a half-sine wave model (HW), and a polynomial model (PO), are tested using data for a period of five years of the area of Amman, Jordan. The results show that none of these models alone can adequately represent the tested data. Specifically, the results show that PO model represents the data in about 42% of the hours of the year, the ND model about 32%, and the HW model about 34%. Thus a new model which is a combination of the three simple models developed to provide a comprehensive representation of the tested data. This model is given as follows :

r=@p(i,h) [ao+a~h+a,h2+a~h3+a4h4]

where h is the hour of the day, i the month of the year, and ~Pp, q)s, and ~, have 0, 0.5 or 1 values depending on i and h. It is found that this model represents the data in about 74% of the time.