## Abstract This article presents a first evaluation of a hydrological forecasting suite at seasonal time scales over France. The hydrometeorological model SAFRAN‐ISBA‐MODCOU is forced by seasonal forecasts from the DEMETER project for the March–April–May period. Despite a simple downscaling method
✦ LIBER ✦
Short- and medium-range hydrological ensemble forecasts over France
✍ Scribed by G. Thirel; F. Regimbeau; E. Martin; J. Noilhan; F. Habets
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 2010
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 246 KB
- Volume
- 11
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1530-261X
- DOI
- 10.1002/asl.254
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## Abstract We present a new method for the assessment and calibration of medium‐range ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximizing the likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and leads to some new insights into the predictability of uncertaint