Sensemaking for Security (Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications)

✍ Scribed by Anthony J. Masys (editor)

• Publisher: Springer
• Year: 2021
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 283
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This book presents sensemaking strategies to support security planning and design. Threats to security are becoming complex and multifaceted and increasingly challenging traditional notions of security. The security landscape is characterized as ‘messes’ and ‘wicked problems’ that proliferate in this age of complexity. Designing security solutions in the face of interconnectedness, volatility and uncertainty, we run the risk of providing the right answer to the wrong problem thereby resulting in unintended consequences.

Sensemaking is the activity that enables us to turn the ongoing complexity of the world into a “situation that is comprehended explicitly in words and that serves as a springboard into action” (Weick, Sutcliffe, Obstfeld, 2005). It is about creating an emerging picture of our world through data collection, analysis, action, and reflection. The importance of sensemaking to security is that it enables us to plan, design and act when the world aswe knew it seems to have shifted.

Leveraging the relevant theoretical grounding and thought leadership in sensemaking, key examples are provided, thereby illustrating how sensemaking strategies can support security planning and design. This is a critical analytical and leadership requirement in this age of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity that characterizes the security landscape.

This book is useful for academics, graduate students in global security, and government and security planning practitioners.

✦ Table of Contents

Contents
The Security Landscape—Systemic Risks Shaping Non-traditional Security
1 Introduction
2 Systemic Risk and the WEF Risk Landscape (2020)
3 Traditional Security and Nontraditional Security
4 Human Security
5 Cascading Risks
6 Discussion
7 Conclusion
References
Exploring Sensemaking: A View Through the COVID-19 Pandemic
1 Introduction
2 Sensemaking
3 Discussion: Systemic Risks and Sensemaking
4 Crisis, Threats, Risks, Vulnerabilities and Sensemaking
5 Conclusion
References
Sensemaking Under Conditions of Extreme Uncertainty: From Observation to Action
1 Introduction
2 Extreme Uncertainty: Survival in a World of Surprises
2.1 The Increasing Complexity and Dynamism—The Global Value Chains
2.2 The Difference Between “Risk” and “Uncertainty”
3 Avoiding Surprise: Establishing Situational Awareness
3.1 Sensing and Identifying Relevant Changes in the Operating Environment
3.2 The OODA Loop Approach
4 Options for Reducing Uncertainty Related to Future Events
4.1 Strategic Foresight as Tool for Reducing Uncertainty
5 Sensemaking: Answering “The So What?” and “What Next?”
5.1 Strategic Intelligence and Sensemaking
6 Closing the Loop: From Detection to Action
7 Conclusion: The Path to Being Surprised Less Frequently
References
Global Health and Pandemics—Beyond Direct Effects of COVID 19 Outbreak
1 Introduction
1.1 Systems Thinking
2 Sensemaking
3 Discussion
3.1 Overview of COVID-19
3.2 Examination of Secondary and Tertiary Effects
3.3 Psychological Distress
3.4 Mental Health Issues
3.5 Systems, Complexity and COVID
3.6 A Framework that Addresses Direct and Indirect Effects
4 Conclusion
References
Sensemaking and Disaster Forensics: An Examination of Cholera Epidemics
1 Introduction
2 Overview of Cholera
3 Sensemaking
4 Systems Thinking
5 Stress-Testing Communities: Revealing Vulnerabilities and Interdependencies
6 Outbreaks in African Countries
7 Case Studies (Region of Americas)
7.1 Haiti Outbreak (2010–2017)
7.2 Peru Outbreak (1991–1995)
8 Methodology and Analysis
9 Discussion
10 Predictive Model Results
11 Limitations
12 Sensemaking and Systems Solutions
13 Surveillance and Vaccination
14 The Economy and Good Governance
15 Technology
16 Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
17 Recommendations and Conclusions
References
Sensemaking and Security: How Climate Change Shapes National Security
1 Introduction
2 The World Climate and Security Report 2020
3 Climate Change Security in South Asia
4 Climate Change Security in the Asia Pacific Region
5 Climate Change Security in the Pacific Islands
6 Military Planning for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR)
7 Adapting Bases and Troops at Risk
8 The Need for Climate Change Security Strategy
References
Importance of the Humanitarian—Development—Peace Nexus to Make Sense for Security Some Thoughts and Examples from Palestine
1 Progress on Many Fronts, but not Regarding Peace and Security
2 How to Tackle This Challenge? How to Make Better Sense for Security? Some Conceptual Thoughts
3 The Importance of the Humanitarian—Development—Peace (HDP) Nexus and Some Concrete Ideas and Examples How to Operationalize Activities at the Nexus
3.1 Humanitarian Work/Food Security
3.2 Development Work
3.3 Human Security/Peace
4 The Specificities of the Country Case of Palestine
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
References
Location Intelligence Powered by Machine Learning Automation for Mapping Malaria Mosquito Habitats Employing an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for Implementing “Seek and Destroy” for Commercial Roadside Ditch Foci and Real Time Larviciding Rock Pit Quarry Habitats in Peri-Domestic Agro-Pastureland Ecosystems in Northern Uganda
1 Introduction
2 Operationalizing ‘Seek and Destroy’ Malaria Habitat Strategy
3 Method
3.1 Study Site
3.2 UAV Tactics
3.3 Technical Details Data Preparation
3.4 Convolutional Neural Network Based Object-Detection Algorithms to Localize the Breeding Habitats
3.5 Learning Rate for Each Iteration
4 Results
5 Discussion/Conclusion
References
Exploring the Opioid Crisis Through Systems Thinking and Participative Model Building: An Experiential Learning Event
1 Introduction
2 Systems Thinking and Sensemaking
3 Interprofessional Education (IPE)
4 Discussion
4.1 Understanding the Opioid Crisis
4.2 Experiential Learning: Case Study
4.3 Opening the Black Box of the Opioid Crisis: IPE, Complexity and Systems Thinking
5 Conclusion
References
Vulnerability Analysis to Support Disaster Resilience
1 Introduction
2 Sensemaking to Support Vulnerability Analysis
3 Case Study: Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico
4 Discussion
4.1 Impacts of Hurricane Maria
5 Sensemaking Vulnerability and Risk
6 Conclusion
References
A System Dynamics Model of COVID-19 in Canada: A Case Study in Sensemaking
1 Introduction
2 Modelling
3 Assumptions
4 Estimating the Model Parameters
5 Long Term Projections
6 Testing the Assumptions
7 Conclusions
ANNEX A: COVID-19 System Dynamics Model Equations
ANNEX B: Fitting the Model to Canadian Provinces
References
How Politics Shapes Pandemics
1 Introduction
1.1 Modernity and Freedoms
1.2 Modernity and Health
2 Testing the Three Public Health Hypotheses
2.1 Active Learning as a Mitigative
2.2 In Time of Pandemic, Central and Local Governments that Prioritise Public Health Can Reduce Death and Suffering
2.3 Modernity Delivering Ever More Comfort and Security?
3 Conclusions
References
Empowering Citizens with Tools for Personalized Health is the Future of Effective Public Health Responses
1 Introduction
2 Biomarkers, Wearable Technologies, and AI are Shaping the Future of Personalized Health
3 Deploying Personalized Health Technologies as a Public Health Strategy for COVID-19
4 An Equitable Future—Making Personalized Health Tools Accessible to All
5 Conclusion
References
Threat Risk Assessment (TRA) for Physical Security
1 Introduction
2 Background
2.1 Establishing a Requirement
2.2 Scope and Definition of a TRA
2.3 Asset Identification
2.4 Asset Valuation
2.5 Threat Assessment
2.6 Vulnerability Assessment
2.7 Reassessment Triggers
2.8 Other Considerations
3 Discussion of Results
3.1 The Proposed TRA Methodology
3.2 Selection and Prioritization of Assets for Conduct of a Baseline TRA
4 Recommendations
5 Conclusion
Annex A: Comparative Analysis of TRA Methodologies
Requirement and Scope Definition Phases
Requirements
Scope and Definition
Asset Identification and Valuation Phase
Asset Identification
Asset Valuation
Threat Assessment Phase
Vulnerability Assessment Phase
Risk Assessment Phase (and Calculation of Residual Risk)
Risk Mitigation Strategy (Recommendations Phase)
Annex B: Localized Design Basis Threat
Overview of the LDBT and Use in the TRA Methodology
Undesirable Events (UE)
UE Ratings
Annex C: Targeting Analysis
References
Crisis Leadership and Sensemaking
1 Introduction
2 Crisis Defined
3 Sensemaking
4 Discussion
5 Crisis Leadership Framework
6 Operationalizing Crisis Leadership
7 Conclusion
References