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Predicting Turning Points through the Integration of Multiple Models

✍ Scribed by David T. Li and Jeffrey H. Dorfman


Book ID
124697499
Publisher
American Statistical Association
Year
1996
Tongue
English
Weight
330 KB
Volume
14
Category
Article
ISSN
0735-0015

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A Bayesian statistical method to detect turning points in the leading composite index is introduced. Under the assumption of causal priority of the leading composite index to the business cycle, the turning points in business cycles are predicted by detection of them in the index. The underlying pro