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Predicting the Turning Points of Business and Economic Time Series

โœ Scribed by John L. Kling


Book ID
124649822
Publisher
University of Chicago Press
Year
1987
Tongue
English
Weight
607 KB
Volume
60
Category
Article
ISSN
0021-9398

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A Bayesian statistical method to detect turning points in the leading composite index is introduced. Under the assumption of causal priority of the leading composite index to the business cycle, the turning points in business cycles are predicted by detection of them in the index. The underlying pro