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Overcoming the winner's curse: an adaptive learning perspective

✍ Scribed by Yoella Bereby-Meyer; Brit Grosskopf

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2008
Tongue
English
Weight
240 KB
Volume
21
Category
Article
ISSN
0894-3257

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

The winner's curse phenomenon refers to the fact that the winner in a common value auction, in order to actually win the auction, is likely to have overestimated the item's value and consequently is likely to gain less than expected and may even lose (i.e., it is said to be β€œcursed”). Past research, using the β€œAcquiring a company” task has shown that people do not overcome this bias even after they receive extensive feedback. We suggest that the persistence of the winner's curse is due to a combination of two factors: variability in the environment that leads to ambiguous feedback (i.e., choices and outcomes are only partially correlated) and the tendency of decision makers to learn adaptively. We show in an experiment that by reducing the variance in the feedback, performance can be significantly improved. Copyright Β© 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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