✦ LIBER ✦

Onset of thunderstorms and precipitation over Northern Nigeria

✍ Scribed by J. Bayo Omotosho

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1990
Tongue: English
Weight: 580 KB
Volume: 10
Category: Article
ISSN: 0899-8418
DOI: 10.1002/joc.3370100807

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

An empirical prediction scheme for the start of thunderstorms, and the onset and expected amount of rainfall for any year at Kano, Nigeria, is presented, using 8 years' upper air data. The years investigated include two drought years (1973 and 1974) and 3 years of above average rainfall (1978, 1980, and 1988).

Agriculturally sufficient and reliable rainfall begins 5–6 weeks after the vertical wind shear below the African Easterly Jet, Δ__U__~L~(surface, 700 hPa), and the mid‐tropospheric shear Δ__U__~M~ (700–400 hPa), simultaneously satisfy the condition −20≤U~L~≤−5 ms^−1^ and 0≤U~M~ ≤10 ms^−1^, as previously put forward by Omotosho. The total precipitation for any year is found to be well correlated with the total moisture anomaly (specific humidity) from the week of the above‐critical wind shear to the week of rainfall onset. This makes it possible to estimate the expected rainfall total at the very onset of the rains.

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