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On the use of dispersion measures from NAPM surveys in business cycle forecasting

✍ Scribed by Susmita Dasgupta; Kajal Lahiri

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1993
Tongue
English
Weight
941 KB
Volume
12
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Qualitative survey data on changes in production, inventory, new order, and employment collected every month by the National Association of Purchasing Managers are analysed over 1948-90. The Probability method we use generates time-series estimates of cross-section variabilities across firms. It is shown that these digusion measures have additional explanatory power in the prediction of business cycle turning points.

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