On the homogeneity of the annual temperature of central England since 1659

✍ Scribed by Probert-Jones, J. R.

• Publisher: Wiley (John Wiley & Sons)
• Year: 1984
• Weight: 791 KB
• Volume: 4
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 2314-6214
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.3370040303

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

Two statistical models are developed to represent the annual temperature of central England from 1659 to 1973, and two similar models to represent the annual standard error (continentality). From these models, 95 per cent confidence intervals are obtained for the highest and lowest means over periods of 10, 30 and 50 years in a sequence of 315 years. Within the limits of accuracy of both the data and the models, no mean lies outside the confidence intervals, and it is concluded that in terms of both annual temperature and annual standard error the climate of central England is statistically homogeneous over these 315 years. Nevertheless, the 25 year period 1674–1698 was particularly cold, and may possibly represent the end of the ‘little ice age’ if it existed.