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On Some Recently Discovered Manuscripts of Thomas Bayes

✍ Scribed by David Bellhouse


Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2002
Tongue
English
Weight
99 KB
Volume
29
Category
Article
ISSN
0315-0860

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✦ Synopsis


A set of manuscripts attributed to Thomas Bayes was recently discovered among the Stanhope of Chevening papers housed in the Centre for Kentish studies. One group of the manuscripts is directly related to Bayes's posthumous paper on infinite series. These manuscripts also show that the paper on infinite series was directly motivated by results in Maclaurin's A Treatise of Fluxions. Four other manuscripts in the collection cover a variety of mathematical topics spanning the solution to polynomial equations to infinite series expansions of powers of the arcsine function. It is conjectured that one of latter manuscripts, on the subject of trinomial divisors, predates Bayes's election to the Royal Society in 1742. From the style of writing of the manuscripts, it is also speculated that Richard Price, who presented Bayes's now famous essay on inverse probability to the Royal Society, had more of a hand in the printed version of the essay than just the transmission of its contents. C 2002 Elsevier Science (USA) Un ensemble de manuscrits attribués à Thomas Bayes fut récemment découvert parmi les articles de Stanhope de Chevening rangés au centre d'études de Kent. Un groupe de ces manuscrits est directement relié à l'article posthume de Bayes sur les séries infinies. Ces manuscrits démontrent aussi que l'article sur les séries infinies fut directement motivé par les résultats de Maclaurin dans A Treatise of Fluxions. Quatre autres manuscrits dans la collection couvrent une variété de sujets mathématiques, de la solution des équations polynomiales au développement en séries infinies des puissances de la fonction arc sinus. On suppose que l'un de ces derniers manuscrits, celui qui des diviseurs trinômes, précède l'élection de Bayes à la Royal Society en 1742. Du style des manuscrits, on suppose aussi que l'on doit à Richard Price, celui qui présentait à la Royal Society l'aujourd'hui célèbre dissertation de Bayes sur la probabilité inverse, plus de crédit dans la version écrite de la dissertation que la seule présentation de son contenu. C 2002 Elsevier Science (USA) MSC 1991 subject classifications: 01A50, 40A30.


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