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Models of voter turnout: a brief idiosyncratic review

✍ Scribed by Bernard Grofman


Publisher
Springer US
Year
1983
Tongue
English
Weight
231 KB
Volume
41
Category
Article
ISSN
0048-5829

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✦ Synopsis


Models of voter turnout: a brief idiosyncratic review* A comment BERNARD GROFMAN** There are two rather different traditions that have looked at the question "Why do citizens vote?" One tradition describes/predicts turnout in terms of demographic and attitudinal characteristics-often by looking for the multivariate regression equation with highest r 2 based on some subset of the variable list in the ICPSR codebook (i.e., every variable known to political science). 1 In one variant of this tradition, voting is treated as just one of a large class of potential forms of political participation (including, e.g., writing a letter to one's Congressman, making a campaign contribution, throwing a pie at the President, etc.). 2 * This manuscript was typed by the Word Processing Center of the School of Social Sciences, UCI. I gratefully acknowledge the bibliographic assistance of Sue Pursche.


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Many papers have tested the prediction of the rational voter model that, ceteris paribus, turnout will be low when potential voters expect the winner's plurality to be large. The appropriate null hypothesis, however, is unclear. We show that statistical models of voting in which each voter's decisio