✦ LIBER ✦
A positive correlation between turnout and plurality does not refute the rational voter model
✍ Scribed by Amihai Glazer; Bernard Grofman
- Publisher
- Springer Netherlands
- Year
- 1992
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 454 KB
- Volume
- 26
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0033-5177
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Many papers have tested the prediction of the rational voter model that, ceteris paribus, turnout will be low when potential voters expect the winner's plurality to be large. The appropriate null hypothesis, however, is unclear. We show that statistical models of voting in which each voter's decision of whether to vote does not vary with the expected plurality can nonetheless generate data which lead to both positive and negative correlations between turnout and plurality.