Minimum variance pooling of forecasts at different levels of aggregation

✍ Scribed by Jeff Fuhrer; Jane Haltmaier

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1988
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 538 KB
• Volume: 7
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0277-6693
• DOI: 10.1002/for.3980070106

✦ Synopsis

The most common approach to combining forecasts at different levels of aggregation has been to sum (or average) the more disaggregated forecast, and take a weighted average of the aggregate forecasts. This paper develops a simple method for obtaining minimum variance pooled forecasts at the disaggregated level. The major advantage that this method has over the common approach is that it provides pooled forecasts at both the aggregated and disaggregated level. As will be shown, the resulting aggregate pooled forecast is identical to the forecast which would be obtained by simply pooling two forecasts at the aggregate level, while the disaggregated forecast maintains the aggregation identity required by the problem.