This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementar
Logical Introduction to Probability and Induction
β Scribed by Franz Huber
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Year
- 2018
- Tongue
- English
- Leaves
- 305
- Category
- Library
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
β¦ Synopsis
A Logical Introduction to Probability and Induction is a textbook on the mathematics of the probability calculus and its applications in philosophy.
On the mathematical side, the textbook introduces these parts of logic and set theory that are needed for a precise formulation of the probability calculus. On the philosophical side, the main focus is on the problem of induction and its reception in epistemology and the philosophy of science. Particular emphasis is placed on the means-end approach to the justification of inductive inference rules.
In addition, the book discusses the major interpretations of probability. These are philosophical accounts of the nature of probability that interpret the mathematical structure of the probability calculus. Besides the classical and logical interpretation, they include the interpretation of probability as chance, degree of belief, and relative frequency. The Bayesian interpretation of probability as degree of belief locates probability in a subject's mind. It raises the question why her degrees of belief ought to obey the probability calculus. In contrast to this, chance and relative frequency belong to the external world. While chance is postulated by theory, relative frequencies can be observed empirically.
A Logical Introduction to Probability and Induction aims to equip students with the ability to successfully carry out arguments. It begins with elementary deductive logic and uses it as basis for the material on probability and induction. Throughout the textbook results are carefully proved using the inference rules introduced at the beginning, and students are asked to solve problems in the form of 50 exercises. An instructor's manual contains the solutions to these exercises as well as suggested exam questions.
The book does not presuppose any background in mathematics, although sections 10.3-10.9 on statistics are technically sophisticated and optional. The textbook is suitable for lower level undergraduate courses in philosophy and logic.
β¦ Table of Contents
Cover
Half title
A Logical Introduction To Probability And Induction
Copyright
Contents
Preface
Acknowledgments
1. Logic
1.1. Propositional Logic
1.2. Predicate Logic
1.3. Exercises
Readings
2. SetTheory
2.1. Elementary Postulates
2.2. Exercises
Readings
3. Induction
3.1. Confirmation and induction
3.2. The problem of induction
3.3. Hume's argument Readings
Readings
4. Deductive Approaches to Confirmation
4.1. Analysis and explication
4.2. The ravens paradox
4.3. The prediction criterion
4.4. The logic of confirmation
4.5. The satisfaction criterion
4.6. Falsificationism
4.7. Hypothetico-deductive confirmation
4.8. Exercises
Readings
5. Probability
5.1. The probability calculus
5.2. Examples
5.3. Conditional probability
5.4. Elementary consequences
5.5. Probabilities on languages
5.6. Exercises
Readings
6. The Classical Interpretation of Probability
6.1. The principle of indifference
6.2. Bertrandβs paradox
6.3. The paradox of water and wine
Reading
7. The Logical Interpretation of Probability
7.1. State descriptions and structure descriptions
7.2. Absolute confirmation and incremental confirmation
7.3. Carnap on Hempel
7.4. The justification of logic
7.5. The new riddle of induction
7.6. Exercises
Readings
8. The Subjective Interpretation of Probability
8.1. Degrees of Belief
8.2. The Dutch Book Argument
8.3. The Gradational Accuracy Argument
8.4. Bayesian ConfirmationTheory
8.5. Updating
8.6. Bayesian Decision Theory
8.7. Exercises
Readings
9. The Chance Interpretation of Probability
9.1. Chances
9.2. Probability in physics
9.3. The principal principle Readings
Readings
10. The (Limiting) Relative Frequency Interpretation of Probability
10.1. The justification of induction
10.2. The straight(-forward) rule
10.3. Random variables
10.4. Independent and identically distributed random variables
10.5. The strong lawof large numbers
10.6. Degrees of belief, chances, and relative frequencies
10.7. Descriptive statistics
10.8. The central limit theorem
10.9. Inferential statistics
10.10. Exercises
Readings
11. Alternative Approaches to Induction
11.1. Formal learning theory
11.2. Putnamβs argument
Readings
References
Index
π SIMILAR VOLUMES
<span>This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elem
This book clearly explains ideas in logic and in statistics/probability courses I have taken, and includes several insights new to me. It contains several real world exercises and answers. For me it's hard to put down. Every minute spent going through it has been very much worth it.
Professor Carveth Read (1848-1931) was a 19th and 20th century British philosopher and logician. He was Professor of Philosophy at University College London. His works include: The Theory of Logic (1878), Logic: Deductive and Inductive (1898), The Metaphysics of Nature (1905), Natural and Social Mo