An introduction to probability and inductive logic

✍ Scribed by Hacking I.

• Publisher: CUP
• Year: 2001
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 320
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This is an introductory textbook on probability and induction written by one of the world's foremost philosophers of science. The book has been designed to offer maximal accessibility to the widest range of students (not only those majoring in philosophy) and assumes no formal training in elementary symbolic logic. It offers a comprehensive course covering all basic definitions of induction and probability, and considers such topics as decision theory, Bayesianism, frequency ideas, and the philosophical problem of induction. The key features of the book are: * A lively and vigorous prose style Lucid and systematic organization and presentation of the ideas Many practical applications A rich supply of exercises drawing on examples from such fields as psychology, ecology, economics, bioethics, engineering, and political science Numerous brief historical accounts of how fundamental ideas of probability and induction developed.* A full bibliography of further reading Although designed primarily for courses in philosophy, the book could certainly be read and enjoyed by those in the social sciences (particularly psychology, economics, political science and sociology) or medical sciences such as epidemiology seeking a reader-friendly account of the basic ideas of probability and induction. Ian Hacking is University Professor, University of Toronto. He is Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Fellow of the British Academy, and Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. he is author of many books including five previous books with Cambridge (The Logic of Statistical Inference, Why Does Language Matter to Philosophy?, The Emergence of Probability, Representing and Intervening, and The Taming of Chance).

✦ Table of Contents

Title ......Page 1
Copyright ......Page 4
Dedication ......Page 5
Contents ......Page 7
A Note on the Cover Illustration page ......Page 9
Foreword ......Page 11
Odd Questions ......Page 15
1 Logic ......Page 19
2 What Is Inductive Logic? ......Page 29
3 The Gambler's Fallacy ......Page 41
4 Elementary Probability Ideas ......Page 55
5 Conditional Probability ......Page 65
6 The Basic Rules of Probability ......Page 76
7 Bayes' Rule ......Page 87
8 Expected Value ......Page 97
9 Maximizing Expected Value ......Page 116
10 Decision under Uncertainty ......Page 132
11 What Do You Mean? ......Page 145
12 Theories about Probability ......Page 158
13 Personal Probabilities ......Page 169
14 Coherence ......Page 181
15 Learning from Experience ......Page 189
16 Stability ......Page 207
17 Normal Approximations ......Page 219
18 Significance and Power ......Page 227
19 Confidence and Inductive Behavior ......Page 247
20 The Philosophical Problem of Induction ......Page 265
21 Learning from Experience as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction ......Page 274
22 Inductive Behavior as an Evasion of the Problem of Induction ......Page 279
Answers to the Exercises ......Page 287
Further Reading ......Page 311
Index ......Page 318