Linear-Combination of Forecasts: A Reply
β Scribed by Derek W. Bunn
- Book ID
- 125577899
- Publisher
- Palgrave Publishers Ltd.
- Year
- 1981
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 77 KB
- Volume
- 32
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0160-5682
- DOI
- 10.2307/2581916
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
π SIMILAR VOLUMES
We provide a general Bayesian model for combining forecasts from experts (or forecasting models) who might be biased and correlated with each other. The combination procedure involves debiasing and then combining unbiased forecasts. We also provide a sequential method for learning about the forecast
## Abstract A general Bayesian approach to combining __n__ expert forecasts is developed. Under some moderate assumptions on the distributions of the expert errors, it leads to a consistent, monotonic, quasiβlinear average formula. This generalizes Bordley's results.
The standard approach to combining n expert forecasts involves taking a weighted average. Granger and Ramanathan proposed introducing an intercept term and unnormalized weights. This paper deduces their proposal from Bayesian principles. We find that their formula is equivalent to taking a weighted