𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
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Linear-Combination of Forecasts: A Reply

✍ Scribed by Derek W. Bunn


Book ID
125577899
Publisher
Palgrave Publishers Ltd.
Year
1981
Tongue
English
Weight
77 KB
Volume
32
Category
Article
ISSN
0160-5682

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Forecast Combination: Replies
✍ Simon French and D. W. Bunn πŸ“‚ Article πŸ“… 1981 πŸ› Palgrave Publishers Ltd. 🌐 English βš– 115 KB
Linear combination of forecasts: A gener
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We provide a general Bayesian model for combining forecasts from experts (or forecasting models) who might be biased and correlated with each other. The combination procedure involves debiasing and then combining unbiased forecasts. We also provide a sequential method for learning about the forecast

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✍ Luisa Tibiletti πŸ“‚ Article πŸ“… 1994 πŸ› John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English βš– 362 KB

## Abstract A general Bayesian approach to combining __n__ expert forecasts is developed. Under some moderate assumptions on the distributions of the expert errors, it leads to a consistent, monotonic, quasi‐linear average formula. This generalizes Bordley's results.

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The standard approach to combining n expert forecasts involves taking a weighted average. Granger and Ramanathan proposed introducing an intercept term and unnormalized weights. This paper deduces their proposal from Bayesian principles. We find that their formula is equivalent to taking a weighted