The dynamic linear model (DLM) with additive Gaussian errors provides a useful statistical tool that is easily implemented because of the simplicity of updating a normal model that has a natural conjugate prior. If the model is not linear or if it does not have additive Gaussian errors, then numeric
Graphical dynamic linear models: specification, use and graphical transformations
โ Scribed by Beatriz Lacruz; Pilar Lasala; Alberto Lekuona
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 2000
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 199 KB
- Volume
- 24
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0888-613X
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โฆ Synopsis
In this work, we propose a dynamic graphical model as a tool for Bayesian inference and forecasting in dynamic systems described by a series which is dependent on a state vector evolving according to a Markovian law. We build sequential algorithms for the probabilities propagation. This sequentiality turns out to be represented by the dynamic graphical structure after carrying out several goal-oriented sequential graphical transformations.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES
We propose a dynamic graphical model which generalizes nonhomogeneous hidden Markov models. Inference and forecast procedures are developed. A comparison with an exact propagation algorithm is established and equivalence is stated.