Forecasting water demand—A disaggregated approach

✍ Scribed by G. G. Archibald

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1983
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 725 KB
• Volume: 2
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0277-6693
• DOI: 10.1002/for.3980020208

✦ Synopsis

The paper outlines the background research into domestic and industrial water use that was conducted over a period of 3 years and the use that was subsequently made of the detailed information in establishing a revised 20 year forecast of the demand for potable water supplies in the Severn-Trent Water Authority area in England. The major difficulty in forecasting water demand is its multiplicity of uses, each with a different potential rate of growth in demand; a further complication is the growth in water recycling in industry.

The water industry is one of the most capital intensive industries in the UK and because of the large capital sums involved in reservoir development and the long lead times for construction, the reliability of forecasts is a sensitive area. The component method described in this paper replaces the traditional extrapolatory approach and is believed to produce more meaningful forecasts.

KEY WORDS Water use research Component forecast Consumer surveys Capital investment Long term forecasting Trend curves

The water industry must have an eye on the likely level of demands 15-20 years ahead in deciding on current capital projects. The traditional long term demand forecasting method in the UK has been trend extrapolation but during the 1970s there has been increasing concern about the risks of over-provision associated with this approach and alternative methods have been investigated.

Expenditure on new resources is 'lumpy'; the next major reservoir to be opened in the Severn-Trent Water Authority area (STWA) will cost over E30m and will increase capacity in the East Midlands area by 25 per cent t o meet projected demands sometime beyond the end of the 0277-6693/83/020 18 1-1 2$0 1. 20