✦ LIBER ✦
Forecasting future canadian residential heating demand: An illustration of forecasting with aggregated and disaggregated data
✍ Scribed by M. K. Berkowitz; G. H. Haines JR.
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1984
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 741 KB
- Volume
- 3
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
This paper examines the sensitivity of forecasts to the level of aggregation of the data. A relative shares regression model and a multinominal logit model are tested with both aggregate and disaggregate survey data from 21 09 respondents. The results indicate the appropriate model to use depends on whether the data are disaggregate or aggregate in form. Forecasts of solar heating of dwelling unit demand and market shares are also reported for Canada in terms of the solar price relative to the natural gas price and solar reliability relative to natural gas reliability.