Forecasting recessions using the yield c
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Marcelle Chauvet; Simon Potter
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Article
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2005
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John Wiley and Sons
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English
β 452 KB
We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with aut