Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity

FORECASTING RECESSION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A

FORECASTING RECESSION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A COMPARISON OF THE YIELD CURVE AND OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS

✍ Melvin Muzi Khomo; Meshach Jesse Aziakpono 📂 Article 📅 2007 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 270 KB

## Abstract The paper uses the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996), as well as the modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997), to examine the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used