Forecasting technique familiarity, satisfaction, usage, and application

✍ Scribed by John T. Mentzer; Kenneth B. Kahn

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1995
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 696 KB
• Volume: 14
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0277-6693
• DOI: 10.1002/for.3980140506

✦ Synopsis

A ten-year retrospective study of Mentzer and Cox (1984) was undertaken to answer the question 'Have sales forecasting practices changed over the past ten years?' A mail survey of 207 forecasting executives was employed to investigate this important question. Findings revealed both discrepancies and similarities between today's sales forecasting practices and those of ten years ago. One particular finding indicated greater reliance on and satisfaction with quantitative forecasting techniques today versus ten years ago. Another indicated that forecasting accuracy has not improved over the past ten years, even though the familiarity and usage of various sophisticated sales forecasting techniques have increased. Future research and managerial implications are discussed based on these and other findings. KEY WORDS forecasting techniques; accuracy; usage; satisfaction ' Mentzer and Cox distinguished these four issues as follows: (1) familiarity: how familiar executives are with various forecasting techniques and what avenues are used to learn about new methods and applications; (2) satisfaction: how satisfied managers are with using different forecasting techniques; (3) usage: which forecasting techniques are most commonly used for different time horizons and forecast levels; and (4) application: what degrees of forecast accuracy are achieved, and what other criteria, besides accuracy, are used to evaluate techniques.