✦ LIBER ✦
Business fluctuations; forecasting techniques and applications, Bails, Dale G. and Peppers, Larry C., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall Inc., 1982. Price: £23.95/$37.75. Pages: 482
✍ Scribed by Lester Sartorius
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1983
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 201 KB
- Volume
- 2
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Set up a tracking system and use an adaptive process if applicable. Emphasize that ex-post adjustments by management are to be done only at their own risk. Distribute the forecasting results only to those who need them, along with detailed explanations about how they were derived (no black boxes). Set up an evaluation system (the 'annual physical' in the words of Wynne and Hall, Chapter 3) to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.
1 believe that the reader will find many important ideas for assimilation into his or her own forecasting situation.