✦ LIBER ✦

Forecasting relative quality

✍ Scribed by Noel D. Uri

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1986
Tongue: English
Weight: 788 KB
Volume: 5
Category: Article
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980050204

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

This paper develops a model to forecast the likely quality rating of new automobiles. A scheme is devised and implemented for 1982 whereby the probability that a specific model will have one of five quality ratings is computed. The quality ratings are based on the trouble index computed by Consumer Reports based on a survey of its subscribers. A multinomial logit specification is used whereby the relative probability that a given level of quality is realized is a function of previous quality ratings, the location of the manufacturer of the automobile, the size of the automobile and the list price (or port-of-entry prices, in the case of imports). The forecast results when compared in a qualitative way to actual 1982 quality ratings prove to be acceptable. KEY WORDS Quality Automobiles Multinomial logit model * The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the Federal Trade Commission or the views of other Federal Trade Commission Staff members.

📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES

Forecasting quality and information

✍ Klaus Brockhoff 📂 Article 📅 1984 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 775 KB

It is assumed that demand for information that subjectively appears to be relevant for forecasting improves forecasting quality. To study this hypothesis a number of forecasting experiments were conducted. Fifty managers from the housing business, from banking, and from a research institution were a

How much does simplification of probabil

How much does simplification of probability forecasts reduce forecast quality?

✍ F. J. Doblas-Reyes; C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson 📂 Article 📅 2008 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 126 KB

## Abstract Probability forecasts from an ensemble are often discretized into a small set of categories before being distributed to the users. This study investigates how such simplification can affect the forecast quality of probabilistic predictions as measured by the Brier score (BS). An example

Measuring the quality of linguistic fore

Measuring the quality of linguistic forecasts

✍ Ronald R. Yager 📂 Article 📅 1984 🏛 Elsevier Science ⚖ 212 KB

We suggest a method for representing linguistic forecasts via fuzzy sets. We then use this representation to obtain a measure of quality of forecasts which takes into account both the validity and the specificity of the forecast.

Do experts' adjustments on model-based S

Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?

✍ Philip Hans Franses; Rianne Legerstee 📂 Article 📅 2009 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 90 KB

## Abstract Model‐based SKU‐level forecasts are often adjusted by experts. In this paper we propose a statistical methodology to test whether these expert forecasts improve on model forecasts. Application of the methodology to a very large database concerning experts in 35 countries who adjust SKU‐

The forecast quality of CBOE implied vol

The forecast quality of CBOE implied volatility indexes

✍ Charles J. Corrado; Thomas W. Miller; Jr. 📂 Article 📅 2005 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 340 KB

We examine the forecast quality of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) implied volatility indexes based on the Nasdaq 100 and Standard and Poor's 100 and 500 stock indexes. We find that the forecast quality of CBOE implied volatilities for the S&P 100 (VXO) and S&P 500 (VIX) has improved since 199

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts:

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts

✍ Brian P. Mathews; Adamantios Diamantopoulos 📂 Article 📅 1992 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 441 KB

The judgemental revision of sales forecasts is an issue which is receiving increasing attention in the forecasting literature. This paper compares the performance of forecasts after revision by managers with that of the forecasts which were accepted by them wifhout revision. The data set consists of