๐”– Bobbio Scriptorium
โœฆ   LIBER   โœฆ

Forecast verification: current status and future directions

โœ Scribed by Dr B. Casati; L. J. Wilson; D. B. Stephenson; P. Nurmi; A. Ghelli; M. Pocernich; U. Damrath; E. E. Ebert; B. G. Brown; S. Mason


Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2008
Tongue
English
Weight
188 KB
Volume
15
Category
Article
ISSN
1350-4827

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

โœฆ Synopsis


Abstract

Research and development of new verification strategies and reassessment of traditional forecast verification methods has received a great deal of attention from the scientific community in the last decade. This scientific effort has arisen from the need to respond to changes encompassing several aspects of the verification process, such as the evolution of forecasting systems, or the desire for more meaningful verification approaches that address specific forecast user requirements. Verification techniques that account for the spatial structure and the presence of features in forecast fields, and which are designed specifically for highโ€resolution forecasts have been developed. The advent of ensemble forecasts has motivated the reโ€evaluation of some of the traditional scores and the development of new verification methods for probability forecasts. The expected climatological increase of extreme events and their potential socioโ€economical impacts have revitalized research studies addressing the challenges concerning extreme event verification. Verification issues encountered in the operational forecasting environment have been widely discussed, verification needs for different user communities have been identified, and models to assess the forecast value for specific users have been proposed. Proper verification practice and correct interpretation of verification statistics has been extensively promoted with recent publications and books, tutorials and workshops, and the development of openโ€source software and verification tools. This paper addresses some of the current issues in forecast verification, reviews some of the most recently developed verification techniques, and provides recommendations for future research. Copyright ยฉ 2008 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada.


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