Forecast verification: current status and future directions
โ Scribed by Dr B. Casati; L. J. Wilson; D. B. Stephenson; P. Nurmi; A. Ghelli; M. Pocernich; U. Damrath; E. E. Ebert; B. G. Brown; S. Mason
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2008
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 188 KB
- Volume
- 15
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1350-4827
- DOI
- 10.1002/met.52
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
โฆ Synopsis
Abstract
Research and development of new verification strategies and reassessment of traditional forecast verification methods has received a great deal of attention from the scientific community in the last decade. This scientific effort has arisen from the need to respond to changes encompassing several aspects of the verification process, such as the evolution of forecasting systems, or the desire for more meaningful verification approaches that address specific forecast user requirements. Verification techniques that account for the spatial structure and the presence of features in forecast fields, and which are designed specifically for highโresolution forecasts have been developed. The advent of ensemble forecasts has motivated the reโevaluation of some of the traditional scores and the development of new verification methods for probability forecasts. The expected climatological increase of extreme events and their potential socioโeconomical impacts have revitalized research studies addressing the challenges concerning extreme event verification. Verification issues encountered in the operational forecasting environment have been widely discussed, verification needs for different user communities have been identified, and models to assess the forecast value for specific users have been proposed. Proper verification practice and correct interpretation of verification statistics has been extensively promoted with recent publications and books, tutorials and workshops, and the development of openโsource software and verification tools. This paper addresses some of the current issues in forecast verification, reviews some of the most recently developed verification techniques, and provides recommendations for future research. Copyright ยฉ 2008 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES
Psychopharmacology, and the treatment of depression in particular, is one area where there is currently an increasing awareness of chiral drug phenomena. It is now generally agreed that the pharmacological and pharmacokinetic properties of chiral drugs and their enantiomers should be assessed early
This article introduces the major themes and context for the special series on the current status and future directions of psychological assessment. The internal and external challenges to assessment are outlined along with a listing of professional publications responding to these challenges. Each
## Abstract Where does HRD stand as a bona fide profession? Where does it need to go in the future in its quest to become an established and widely recognized profession? What shortโ and longโrange strategies are needed to get it there? What issues and challenges need to be addressed that will enab
The growing interest in the role that spirituality and religion play in mental health has spawned research investigating the relationships between spirituality, religion, and career development. To date, only a limited number of studies have explored these variables in tandem, but generally these in
As the field of movement disorders has developed and matured over the past 25 years, psychogenic movement disorders have become increasingly recognized in subspecialty clinics. The diagnosis can be challenging and should be based on positive features rather than a purely exclusionary approach. The c