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Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context

✍ Scribed by Tara M. Sinclair; H.O. Stekler


Book ID
113648040
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2009
Tongue
English
Weight
436 KB
Volume
25
Category
Article
ISSN
0169-2070

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We consider tests for the equality of prediction mean squared errors and for forecast encompassing. It is shown that, if forecast errors exhibit ARCH, size distortions are induced in the usual tests. Adjusted test statistics are suggested to alleviate this problem.