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Evaluating the role judgment plays in forecast accuracy

✍ Scribed by Michael R. Donihue

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1993
Tongue
English
Weight
839 KB
Volume
12
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

The majority of model‐based forecasting efforts today rely on relatively simple techniques of estimation and the subjective adjustment of the model's results to produce forecasts. Published forecasts reflect to a great extent the judgment of the forecaster rather than what the model by itself has to say about the future. This paper examines the role judgment plays in the process of producing a macroeconometric forecast. The debate over the use of adjustment constants to alter the statistical results of a model is outlined and an empirical analysis of forecasts generated by the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the US economy is presented using a unique data set which isolates the role of judgment in the forecasting process.

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